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Greek Votes “No” (Voters reject Bailout Offer); expect global equities sell off on Monday

July 5, 2015

  • Figures published by the interior ministry showed 61% of those whose ballots had been counted voting “No”, against 39% voting “Yes”, according to BBC.
  • European stock and bond markets are set to take a sharp hit on Monday after Greece voted ‘No’ to harsh bailout conditions, and bankers said the European Central Bank’s response was now key to the extent of contagion, according to Reuters.
  • “The ECB has the capacity to limit the spread of contagion. But we might still see a fall of 3 percent on European markets on Monday,” said Antonin Jullier, head of equity trading strategy at Citi.(Goldman Sachs has predicted that there could be an initial 10% wiped off the European shares)

Whats next?

  • European Council President Donald Tusk called a euro zone summit for Tuesday to discuss the Greek debt crisis after Greeks voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to reject the terms of a bailout

    European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will hold a conference call with Tusk, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on the Greek situation on Monday morning, the Commission said.

    When is the next deadline?

  • Greece missed a payment to the International Monetary Fund last week and the clock will tick down to 20 July when Greece must repay €3.5bn to the ECB – the final deadline, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If they missed that, “It would then be very difficult to repair the relationship between Athens and the Europeans, at least under the current political configuration in Greece, according to The Guardian.



The Week Ahead July 6th-10th

July 3, 2015

**The Greek referendum on Sunday will determine the move on equities next week. A “YES” vote will keep headline risk high as new negotiations between Athens and its creditors take place and a new government begins to shape, with stocks hovering near current levels in increased volatility. A “NO” vote could be a repeat of last Monday’s selloff as traders push the risk-off button and get out of the market’s way while the future of Greece in the euro zone becomes more clear.

Monday July 6:

  • Service industries in the U.S. probably expanded in June at a faster pace than the previous month, signaling the economy is improving after a weak start to the year, according to the median economist forecast of the Institute for Supply Management’s index.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Markit services index (June final), U.S. labor market conditions index (June), Canada Ivey PMI (June), Canada business sales optimism (2Q), German factory orders (May), Swiss CPI (June), Ukraine CPI (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)

Tuesday July 7:

  • Greek banks are scheduled to reopen.
  • The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in May as a stronger economy boosted demand for imports, economists project the Commerce Department to report. 08:30 in Washington.
  • Iran deadline. Talks in Vienna to reach a final accord on limiting the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program were extended to today from an initial self-imposed cutoff date of June 30.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlook with forecasts for oil, natural gas, power prices and supply.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. job openings/labor turnover (May), U.S. consumer credit (May), Canada trade balance (May), Taiwan inflation (June), Taiwan exports/imports (June), German industrial production (May), U.K. industrial production (May), Swiss unemployment (June), Swiss National Bank foreign-currency reserves (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)

Wednesday July 8:

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • (2 p.m. ET) FOMC minutes from June 16-17 meeting.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, speaks at the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), Brazil IPCA inflation index (June), Japan current account (May), Korean bank lending to households (June), Korean money supply (May), Turkey industrial production (May), Hungary CPI (June).
  • ALCOA starts off Q315 earnings season.

Thursday July 9:

  • Chinese consumer inflation may have accelerated in June, after slowing in May, signaling the start of an economic recovery. Factory-gate price deflation may have stabilized.
  • The International Monetary Fund will release revisions to its World Economic Outlook report.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Canada housing starts (June), Mexico inflation (June), Australia jobless rate (June), German exports (May), U.K. RICS house prices (June), British Chambers of Commerce publishes 2Q economic forecasts, Greek CPI (June), Greek unemployment (April), South Africa manufacturing growth (May), Czech CPI (June), Russia gold and foreign currency reserves (July 3).

Friday July 10:

  • Chinese new lending may have increased in June for a second month, suggesting continued monetary easing is reaching the larger economy.
  • The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil market report with an outlook on global crude demand, supply and stockpiles. The report has projections through the end of 2016.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. wholesale inventories (May), Canada unemployment (June), Mexico industrial production (May), U.K. trade balance (May), U.K. construction output (May), French industrial production (May), Italian industrial production (May), Greek industrial production (May), Turkey current account balance (May), Portugal consumer price index (June).



The Week Ahead June 22-26

June 21, 2015

Monday, June 22:

  • Euro-area leaders are scheduled to hold an emergency summit in Brussels to discuss Greece after finance ministers failed to reach an agreement on terms for unlocking aid before the country’s current bailout program expires on June 30.
  • Iran nuclear negotiations. Talks enter their final phase as diplomats from six world powers and Iran meet in Vienna to seek a nuclear agreement by a June 30 deadline.
  • Purchases of previously owned U.S. homes probably rose in May, helped by employment gains and cheap borrowing costs, after unexpectedly declining a month earlier.

Tuesday, June 23:

  • Orders for U.S. durable goods probably fell in May for a second month as demand for commercial aircraft cooled, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey.
  • Sales of U.S. new homes probably declined in May after an April increase, highlighting the uneven recovery in housing, economists forecast the Commerce Department will report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. FHFA house price index (April), Markit U.S. manufacturing index (June preliminary), Richmond Fed manufacturing (June), euro-area PMIs (June), Italy retail sales (April), South Africa current-account balance (first quarter), South Africa leading indicator (April).

Wednesday, June 24:

  • NATO talks. North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense ministers meet in Brussels for two days to discuss the reinforcement of eastern Europe in response to Russian threats.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. GDP (1Q, third estimate), Mexico bi-weekly CPI, Taiwan industrial production (May), German IFO business confidence (June), Turkey capacity utilization (June), Czech confidence (June), Poland unemployment (May).

Thursday, June 25:

  • Personal spending in May probably climbed in May, bolstered by job and income gains, economists estimate the Commerce Department’s report will show.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Markit U.S. services index (June, preliminary), Kansas City Fed manufacturing (June), Brazil unemployment rate (May), Taiwan money supply (May), Hong Kong trade data (May), Austria industrial production (April), South Africa PPI (May).
  • Misc: Basketball. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers have the first three picks in the National Basketball Association draft, followed by the New York Knicks at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

Friday, June 26:

  •  An unmanned Falcon 9 rocket from SpaceX is scheduled to launch at 11:09 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, in the company’s seventh resupply mission for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to the International Space Station.
  • ECONOMY: Michigan consumer sentiment (June final), Argentina GDP (first quarter), Japan consumer price data (May), Japan unemployment (May), France consumer confidence (June), Hungary unemployment rate (May).



The week ahead June 15-19

June 14, 2015


  • Industrial production in the U.S. probably rose in May for the first time in six months, economists project the Federal Reserve will report. Factories have been beset by a strong dollar, limited capital spending and weak global markets. 09:15 in Washington.
  • Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter of oil, opens its stock market to direct foreign investment.
  • The International Energy Agency publishes its World Energy Outlook 2015 Special Report on Energy and Climate Change. The report will analyze national climate pledges in the context of the recent decline in fossil-fuel prices. Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven will speak at the event. 10:00 in London (05:00 EDT).

Economic news being released:

Empire State manufacturing (June), NAHB homebuilder confidence (June), Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities (April), Canada manufacturing sales (April), Canada existing home sales (May), Argentina national urban CPI (May), Turkey unemployment (March), Israel CPI (May), U.K. Rightmove house prices (June), Poland CPI (May), Russia GDP (first quarter).


  • FOMC meets. The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets in Washington for a two-day gathering to review the state of the U.S. economy and debate the timing of its first interest-rate increase since 2006. Investors see almost no chance of a rate increase at this month’s meeting and a 53 percent chance of a rise at the September meeting, according to bets in interest-rate futures markets.
  • New housing starts in the U.S. probably cooled in May after surging a month earlier to the highest level in seven years, economists forecast the Commerce Department to report. An improving labor market and mortgage rates close to multi-year lows are helping revive construction. 08:30 in Washington.

Economic news being released:

Brazil retail sales (April), Israel GDP (first quarter), U.K. inflation (May), German ZEW survey (June), Russia may report industrial production (May).


  • FOMC rate decision. The Federal Open Market Committee releases its latest policy statement and revised forecasts for U.S. economic growth, the labor market and inflation at 14:00 in Washington. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holds a press conference starting at 14:30.
  • Bank of England minutes. The BOE releases the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s June meeting, when it left its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.
  • Fitbit Inc. IPO pricing. The San Francisco-based maker of wearable devices is expected to price its initial public offering, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At the high end of the $14-to-$16 a share offering range, Fitbit would be valued at about $3.3 billion.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

Economic news being released:

Canada wholesale sales (April), U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), New Zealand current account (first quarter), Japan trade balance (May), U.K. unemployment (April), euro-area inflation (May), South Africa CPI (May), South Africa retail sales (April), Russia may report industrial production (May).


  • Consumer prices probably climbed in May by the most in more than two years as Americans paid more for gasoline, indicating inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s goal. The Labor Department will issue the figures at 08:30 in Washington.
  • China will release residential property prices for May. Home prices dropped in fewer cities in April as demand received a boost from three interest-rate cuts since November and the removal of property curbs.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

Economic news being released:

U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. current account balance (first quarter), Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (June), U.S. leading economic indicators (May), New Zealand GDP (first quarter), Hong Kong unemployment (May), U.K. retail sales (May), Nigeria CPI (May), Polish industrial output (May), Poland retail sales (May), Russia retail sales (May), Ukraine industrial production (May).

Golf. The 115th U.S. Open, the second major championship of the year, begins at Chambers Bay Golf Course in University Place, Washington. Tee times and pairings to be determined. Through 06/21.


  • The Bank of Japan ends a two-day meeting to set monetary policy after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda last week said there was no reason for the yen to weaken further, raising a potential hurdle to additional easing as the bank seeks to boost stalling inflation.
  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its semi-annual update on world coffee supply and demand. The report will include the agency’s first official estimates for the 2015-2016 season.

Economic news being released:

Canada CPI (May), Canada retail sales (April), Brazil IPCA-15 inflation (June), S. Korea purchasing price index (May), Turkey monthly survey of expectations, U.K. public finances (May), Ukraine GDP (first quarter), Georgia GDP (first quarter).



U.S. stocks finished higher on positive Retail Sales data

June 11, 2015

Wall Street climbs after retail sales data

  • U.S. stocks climbed on Thursday as retail sales data lifted the outlook for consumer spending and as healthcare shares gained.
  • U.S. retail sales increased 1.2 percent in May, more than expected, as households boosted purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods even as they paid a bit more for gasoline, according to Reuters.
  • “You had good retail sales today and slightly above expectations. Remember how weak retail sales were in the winter, so you would expect a bounceback here,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.
  • However, the market stayed cautious over Greece. The International Monetary Fund said its delegation had halted negotiations in Brussels and flown home because of differences with Athens.



Twitter’s CEO is stepping down due to slower growth

June 11, 2015

  • Twitter Inc (TWTR.N) Chief Executive Officer Dick Costolo abruptly announced he was stepping down on Thursday amid increasing scrutiny of the company’s slow user growth and inability to attract advertisers at the same rate as its competitors.
  • The company’s shares jumped 7.7 percent to $38.60 following the news before paring gains to trade at $37.54.
  • Twitter has long struggled to gain users at the rate of other social media companies, such as Facebook Inc (FB.O) Instagram and Snapchat, according to The Wall Street Journal.
  • “Twitter has never been great at giving its users reasons to come back. While other social sites have introduced new features and functionality the past few years, Twitter has mostly stood still. The result has been excruciatingly slow user growth”, Forrester’s Elliott said.
  • Chris Sacca, one of Twitter’s earliest investors, said that Twitter would be an “instant fit” for Google (GOOGL.O) if it were to acquire the microblogging service.



World Bank cuts 2015 global growth forecast (again)

June 10, 2015

World Bank Cuts 2015 Global Growth Forecast to 2.8%


  • The World Bank downgraded its outlook for global economic growth amid a broad-based slowdown in emerging markets and softer output in the U.S, The Wall Street Journal reported.
  • The development institution said that it now expects the world economy to grow by 2.8%, 0.2 percentage point slower than it estimated in January.
  • Sharp contractions in Brazil and Russia, alongside weaker growth in Turkey, Indonesia and scores of other developing economies are offsetting healthier growth in Europe and Japan, the bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report.
  • The estimate for U.S. growth was lowered to 2.7% from 3.2%.
  • Emerging markets are expected to face headwinds as borrowing costs are expected to rise as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. That prospect has also sparked a strong dollar rally, tightening the squeeze on developing-country governments and corporations that borrowed dollars but whose income is denominated in local currency.




June 8, 2015

U.S. stocks fell on Monday as disappointing economic data from China and Europe triggered a bout of selling in global equity markets.

December 1, 2014

U.S. Stocks Trade Lower

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  • Stocks retreated Monday as manufacturing data overseas raised fresh fears of slowing economic growth, while a disappointing Black Friday weekend weighed on U.S. retailers.
  • The Nasdaq Composite saw its steepest drop in seven weeks, dragged down by big declines in tech giants such as Apple, Inc., Google Inc., Facebook Inc., and Alibaba. Energy and utility stocks were the only bright spots on Wall Street, rising in tandem with a spike in oil prices.
  • Two factory readings in China showed only modest expansion for November, while similar readings for Germany, France and Italy indicated contraction, The Wall Street Journal reported.
  • The weak readings spurred declines in U.S. industrial stocks and other shares tied to economic output.
  • Elsewhere Monday, retail stocks posted sharp losses following disappointing Black Friday sales. Retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend fell 11%, according to the main industry trade group, a sign that early deals are losing their allure.
  • The weak turnout came as a surprise to many investors, who had been betting that an improving economy and falling gasoline prices would pad retailer profits during the holiday shopping season. Many analysts attributed the poor showing to heavy discounts ahead of Black Friday.
  • Gold prices saw a massive rebound Monday and hit a five-week high, after prices overnight scored a three-week low. The huge daily trading range in gold prices was the largest in years. Several factors worked to support gold Monday, including heavy short covering and bargain hunting. A weaker U.S. dollar index and a bounce in crude oil prices Monday were also featured to start the trading week and the first trading day of the month. News that Moody’s cut the Japanese government’s credit rating was credited with prompting some safe-haven demand for gold, especially from Asian investors.
  • The dollar fell against the yen and the euro on Monday as lower oil prices softened inflation expectations, making investors cautious about the prospects of an increase in U.S. interest rates.
  • Later in the week, investors will shift their focus to Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, with expectations rising that officials with signal intentions to expand their asset-purchase program in a bid to jump-start the region’s flagging economy, according to The Wall Street Journal.




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