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February 9, 2016

The Week Ahead: Oct 5 – 9 (Third Quarter Earnings Is About To Start)

October 4, 2015

MONDAY, OCT. 5

  • U.S. service industries probably grew at a slower pace in September than a month earlier, a report from the Institute for Supply Management is projected to show. A reading above 50 in the non-manufacturing index indicates expansion in the industries that account for almost 90 percent of the economy.
  • Euro-area finance ministers meet to discuss Greece’s progress on steps needed to receive bailout loans for the first time since the country’s elections.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel begins a two-day official visit to India that will include talks with government leaders and a stop in Bangalore.
  • Patriot Coal Corp.’s restructuring plan will be heard in U.S. Bankruptcy Court.
  • Oil and gas drillers including Whiting Petroleum Corp., Southwestern Energy Co. and PDC Energy Inc. are scheduled to present at the Independent Petroleum Association of America’s OGIS San Francisco conference.
  • ECONOMY: Markit U.S. Services PMI (Sept. final)., U.S. labor market conditions index (Sept.), Taiwan foreign reserves (Sept.), Turkey CPI, euro-area services PMI (Sept.), U.K. services PMI (Sept.), Russian services, composite PMI (Sept.).

TUESDAY, OCT. 6

  • The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in August as sales to overseas customers weakened and imports picked up on the heels of resilient domestic demand, figures from the Commerce Department are projected to show.
  • The International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook, followed by a press conference in Lima, leading up to the Oct. 9-11 annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. The fund in July cut its forecast for global growth this year to 3.3 percent, from the 3.5 percent pace projected in April.
  • Moody’s Investors Service holds its 17th annual conference to discuss the challenges and opportunities ahead for Brazil. Mauro Leos, the rating company’s senior analyst for Brazil, is scheduled to discuss the outlook for the country’s sovereign grade.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook, including its once-yearly winter fuels review.
  • Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit 2015. Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Global Markets Institute President Abby Joseph Cohen and Terra Firma Capital Partners Founder Guy Hands are among speakers at the fifth annual conference taking place simultaneously in New York, London and Hong Kong.
  • The U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing on the “potential modernization of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and related energy security issues.”
  • McDonald’s Corp. begins offering all-day breakfast across its U.S. locations as part of Chief Executive Officer Steve Easterbrook’s effort to revive domestic sales.
  • ECONOMY: Canada Ivey purchasing managers index (Sept.), Canada trade balance (Aug.), Taiwan CPI (Sept.), German factory orders (Aug.), Swiss CPI (Sept.), Czech trade balance (Aug.), Hungary budget balance (Sept.), Ukraine CPI, PPI (Sept.)

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 7

  • Volkswagen AG faces a deadline from German regulators to say how it will bring 2.8 million diesel-engine models in its home market up to emissions standards following a U.S. pollution-test cheating scandal that led to the resignation of Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn.
  • The International Monetary Fund releases further research from its Global Financial Stability Report, followed by a press briefing, in Lima, leading up to the Oct. 9-11 annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
  • Norway announces its budget bill for 2016. The government of western Europe’s biggest oil producer has said it will increase spending and lower taxes to cope with a downturn in the oil markets.
  • The Congressional Budget Office is scheduled to release a final estimate for the U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2015. The nonpartisan government agency in August forecast that the shortfall would narrow to $426 billion in the year that ended Sept. 30.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: MBA U.S. mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. consumer credit (Aug.), Brazil IPCA (Sept.), Taiwan import, exports, trade balance (Sept.), Hong Kong foreign reserves (Sept.), China foreign reserves (Sept.), Israel foreign-currency reserves (Sept.), German industrial production (Aug.), U.K. industrial production (Aug.), Romania GDP (second quarter), Czech industrial output (Aug.), Czech retail sales (Aug.), Hungary industrial production (Aug.), Croatia trade balance (July).

THURSDAY, OCT. 8

  • International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and World Bank President Jim Yong Kim give press briefings at 09:00 (10:00 EDT) and 10:00 (11:00 EDT), respectively, in Lima ahead of their organizations’ Oct. 9-11 annual meetings in the Peruvian capital.
  • Bank of England decision. The Monetary Policy Committee will probably leave its key interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve publishes minutes of the Sept. 16-17 meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee, when policy makers left the benchmark federal funds rate at zero to 0.25 percent.
  • U.S. House lawmakers elect the next speaker. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Representative Daniel Webster are running to replace Speaker John Boehner, who announced on Sept. 25 that he would resign from Congress at the end of October.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Canada housing starts (Sept.), Mexico inflation (Sept.), China foreign direct investment (Sept.) any day Oct. 8-Oct. 12, Japan current account (Aug.), Turkey industrial production (Aug.), Egypt CPI (Sept.), U.K. RICS house-price index (Sept.), German trade balance (Aug.), Bank of France business sentiment (Sept.), Hungary CPI (Sept.), Russia current account (third quarter), South Africa manufacturing production (Aug.)
  • EARNINGS: Alcoa Inc., Fast Retailing Co.

FRIDAY, OCT. 9

  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, which includes closely watched numbers for crops such as corn and soybeans.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. import prices (Sept.), U.S. wholesale inventories (Aug.), Canada unemployment rate (Sept.), U.K. trade balance (Aug.), Czech CPI (Sept.), Hungary trade balance (Aug.), Slovakia trade balance, industrial production (Aug.), Estonia trade balance (Aug.).

Source

-Syfur

The Week Ahead Sept. 28 – Oct. 2

September 27, 2015

MONDAY, SEPT. 28

  • U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this week at the request of Putin. The meeting would mark the first face-to-face talks between the leaders in more than a year, and will focus on the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley discusses monetary policy in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.
  • U.S. personal spending and incomes probably advanced in August, fueled by a stronger labor market, a report from the Commerce Department is projected to show.
  • ECONOMY: Pending U.S. home sales (Aug.), Dallas Fed manufacturing index (Sept.), Mexico unemployment rate (Aug.), China industrial profits (Aug.), Italian consumer confidence (Sept.).

TUESDAY, SEPT. 29

  • Home prices in 20 U.S. cities probably increased at a faster pace in the 12 months ended in July, according to an index from S&P/Case-Shiller.
  • Consumer confidence probably declined in September as volatility in U.S. equity markets picked up on concerns about the global economy.
  • ECONOMY: Brazil IGP-M inflation index (Sept.), euro-area economic confidence (Sept.), German CPI (Sept.), U.K. mortgage approvals (Aug.), Hungary unemployment (Aug.), Russia current account (second quarter), Croatia industrial output (Aug.).

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 30

  • Last day of fiscal 2015. U.S. federal agencies operating non-essential services, such as national parks and Internal Revenue Service taxpayer-information phone lines, won’t have the authority to spend money beginning tomorrow without a congressionally approved appropriations bill or a stopgap funding measure for the 2016 fiscal year. At issue in this year’s bill is funding for the women’s health organization Planned Parenthood, a target of anti-abortion groups and more than 40 conservative Republicans. A legislative impasse triggered a 16-day government shutdown in October 2013.
  • Canada reports gross domestic product for July. Statistics Canada reported for June that output grew by 0.5 percent after five previous contractions.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • Madison Square Garden Co. splits into two companies, with one holding the sports and entertainment units — home of the New York Knicks basketball team and Radio City Music Hall — and the other consisting of regional sports networks.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard make opening remarks at the central bank’s annual Community Banking Research and Policy Conference.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. ADP employment (Sept.), Chicago purchasing managers index (Sept.), Brazil primary budget balance (Aug.), S. Korea business confidence survey (Oct.), Japan industrial production (Aug.), Japan retail sales (Aug.), South Africa trade balance (Aug.), Kenya CPI (Sept.), euro-area CPI (Sept.), euro-area unemployment (Aug.), German unemployment rate (Sept.), U.K. GDP (second quarter), Italian unemployment rate (Aug.), Italian CPI (Sept.), Portugal retail sales (Aug.), Portugal industrial production (Aug.), Poland CPI (Sept.), Turkey trade balance (Aug.), Egypt GDP (second quarter).

Thursday, OCT. 1

  • China will announce its official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for September. The reading fell in August to the lowest in three years as monetary easing failed to revive growth drivers weighed by overcapacity and sliding prices. Caixin Media and Markit Economics are also scheduled to announce their own version of the PMI index.
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to make a televised address on the 66th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The nation’s markets will be closed for the weeklong National Day holiday, which ends on Oct. 7.
  • Joe Biden is expected to decide by today whether or not to enter the race for the 2016 Democratic nomination for U.S. president, according to people familiar with the vice president’s thinking.
  • Manufacturing in the U.S. probably expanded in September at the slowest pace since May 2013 as demand from overseas customers weakened.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • New Jersey Transit, the U.S.’s third-biggest rail and bus operator, raises fares an average 9 percent from today in an effort to help close a $120 million budget deficit.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Challenger job-cut announcements (Sept.) U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI (Sept. final), U.S. construction spending (Aug.), Brazil monthly trade balance (Sept.), South Africa manufacturing PMI (Sept.), South Africa consumer confidence (third quarter), euro-area manufacturing PMI (Sept.), U.K. manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Russia current account (third quarter), Russia manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Poland manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Hungary manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Czech manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Turkey manufacturing PMI (Sept.).

Friday, OCT. 2

  • Employers in the U.S. probably added more jobs in September than a month earlier, while the jobless rate held at a seven-year low of 5.1 percent, economists forecast the Labor Department will report.
  • Energy ministers from members of the Group of 20, including oil producers Saudi Arabia, Russia and Mexico, gather in Istanbul.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. factory orders (Aug.), Brazil industrial production (Aug.), Hong Kong retail sales (Aug.), S. Korea consumer prices (Sept.), Japan jobless rate (Aug.), Japan monetary base (Sept.), Japan company inflation expectations from Tankan survey (third quarter), euro-area PPI (Aug.), U.K. construction PMI (Sept.), Romania retail sales (Aug.), Hungary trade balance (July).

Source

-Syfur

The Week Ahead: Sept 21 – 25

September 19, 2015

Business confidence data from China and the euro zone will offer some pointers this week to where the global economy is going after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept markets guessing about when it will begin raising rates.

MONDAY, SEPT. 21:

  • Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably held near the highest level since 2007 in August after unexpectedly rising in July. The National Association of Realtors releases data at 10:00 in Washington.
  • Charter Communications Inc. and Time Warner Cable Inc. hold special meetings for their respective shareholders to vote on Charter’s proposed purchase of Time Warner Cable.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart addresses the Buckhead Rotary Club.

TUESDAY, SEPT. 22:

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a visit to the U.S., his first as China’s leader, amid growing tension over cyberhacking and China’s military moves in the South China Sea. Xi will participate in a Sept. 23 meeting with top U.S. executives that may include Apple Inc.
  • The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission meets to consider proposing a new rule that would require liquidity risk-management programs for open-end management investment companies.
  • Perumin Mining Convention. Peru’s Energy & Mines Minister Rosa Maria Ortiz, its central bank President Julio Velarde and Southern Copper Corp. Chief Executive Officer Oscar Gonzalez Rocha are among scheduled speakers at the gathering in Arequipa, Peru. Through 09/25.

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 23:

  • U.S. President Barack Obama welcomes Pope Francis to Washington at the start of the pontiff’s U.S. visit. Obama will host the pope for talks at the White House, with topics likely to include climate change, income inequality and the refugee crisis in Europe.
  • Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, Ecopetrol SA Chief Executive Officer Juan Carlos Echeverry and Energy Minister Tomas Gonzalez are among scheduled speakers at the Heavy Oil Latin America Conference & Exhibition.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: MBA U.S. mortgage applications (weekly), Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Canada retail sales (July), Brazil current account (Aug.), China Caixin flash manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Taiwan industrial production (Aug.), South Africa CPI (Aug.), South Africa PPI (Aug.), Ghana GDP (second quarter), Russian weekly CPI, Poland unemployment rate (Aug.), Croatia unemployment (Aug.), euro-area preliminary PMIs (Sept.).

THURSDAY, SEPT. 24:

  • -Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lays out goals for the rest of his term after being reappointed this month as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party for another three-year stint that could make him one of Japan’s longest-serving postwar prime ministers. Almost three years after his election, his Abenomics plan of fiscal and monetary stimulus has done little to re-inflate and revive the world’s third-biggest economy, which is on the brink of recession.
  • Sales of new U.S. homes probably continued to rebound in August after recording their biggest gain of the year in July.
  • U.S. durable goods orders probably fell in August for the first time in three months, held back by fewer bookings for commercial aircraft and slower global economic growth.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel and leaders of the country’s 16 regions hold talks to decide on the distribution of extra federal aid to cope with as many as 1 million refugees expected this year.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless (weekly), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index (weekly), Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (Sept.), Brazil unemployment (Aug.), Mexico bi-weekly inflation (Sept. 15), Hong Kong exports, imports, trade balance (Aug.), Germany Ifo business confidence (Sept.), France manufacturing confidence (Sept.).

FRIDAY, SEPT. 25:

  • Confidence among U.S. consumers probably fell less than initially estimated, to 87, in the University of Michigan’s final September index. The gauge’s first estimate on Sept. 11 showed a decline to 85.7 from August’s 91.9 for the largest one-month decline since the end of 2012.

 

Source

 

-Syfur

The Week Ahead: August 24 – 29

August 23, 2015

MONDAY, AUG. 24

  • U.S. President Barack Obama delivers remarks at the eighth annual National Clean Energy Summit in Las Vegas, kicking off a campaign to promote his climate agenda ahead of United Nations-sponsored negotiations in December.
  • India is set to issue a statement on how it plans to reduce carbon emissions as part of its pledge to the United Nations before December’s conference. China, the U.S. and the European Union, the top three producers of greenhouse gases, have already pledged significant reductions. India, the fourth biggest, has yet to do so, and early indications suggest the developing nation won’t be as aggressive.
  • ECONOMY: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July), Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (weekly), Mexico bi-weekly CPI (Aug. 15), Taiwan industrial production (July), Israel unemployment rate (July).

TUESDAY, AUG. 25

  • Home prices in 20 U.S. cities probably climbed at a faster pace in the year ended in June amid a pickup in demand, economists project an S&P/Case-Shiller index will show.
  • Purchases of new U.S. homes probably rebounded in July after unexpectedly retreating in June.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors meets in an extraordinary session to learn details of how the organization will monitor the July 14 nuclear accord signed between Iran and world powers.
  • Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri will discuss international house prices at the Canadian Association for Business Economics’ summer conference in Kingston, Ontario.
  • ECONOMY: FHFA U.S. home price index (June), Markit U.S. services PMI (Aug. preliminary), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Aug.), Brazil current account balance (July), Conference Board China Leading Economic Index (July), Hong Kong exports, imports, trade balance (July), South Africa GDP (second quarter), South Africa mining production (June), Turkey capacity utilization (Aug.), German GDP (second quarter), Ifo German business confidence (Aug.), Czech business and consumer confidence (Aug.), Poland unemployment rate (July).

WEDNESDAY, AUG. 26

  • Orders for U.S. durable goods probably fell in July after rebounding in June on demand for commercial aircraft.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley will answer questions following a 10:00 EDT press briefing on the local and regional economy.
  • The Americas Society/Council of the Americas holds its annual conference in Buenos Aires with speakers including Argentine presidential candidates Mauricio Macri, Daniel Scioli and Sergio Massa, as well as Central Bank President Alejandro Vanoli and executives from Barrick Gold Corp. and Facebook Inc. 09:00.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: MBA U.S. mortgage applications (weekly), Brazil total outstanding loans (July), U.K. CBI retail sales (Aug.).

THURSDAY, AUG. 27

  • U.S. gross domestic product probably grew at a faster annualized rate in the second quarter, according to the median estimate of economists ahead of the Commerce Department’s revised data.
  • Pending sales of existing U.S. homes likely gained in July after unexpectedly falling for the first time this year in June.
  • The U.S. Food and Drug Administration will decide by today on whether to grant marketing approval for Amgen Inc.’s Repatha cholestrol-lowering drug. The decision would follow the agency’s July approval of the similar Praluent, manufactured by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), Kansas City Fed manufacturing (Aug.), Philippines GDP (second quarter), South Africa PPI (July), Turkey foreign tourist arrivals (July), euro-area M3 (July), French manufacturing confidence (Aug.), U.K. Nationwide house prices (Aug.), Russia gold and forex reserves (Aug. 21).

FRIDAY, AUG. 28

  • Japan releases consumer price index data for July, with economists projecting a decline of 0.2 percent for the central bank’s core measure for inflation.
  • The U.K. Office for National Statistics publishes its second estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, which is based on revised output figures, together with some expenditure and income data. It will contain information on consumer and government spending, exports and imports, capital formation, and business investment.
  • Brazil’s economy probably contracted in the second quarter on government austerity measures and the highest interest rates in nine years. Analysts see GDP declining 2 percent this year and 0.15 percent in 2016, which would be Brazil’s longest recession since 1931.
  • U.S. households probably continued spending in July, with the median estimate of economists calling for a 0.4 percent gain in expenditures. The Commerce Department will also report personal income data for that month.
  • Confidence among U.S. consumers was probably little changed in August from a month earlier, with the University of Michigan’s final index expected to register 93.2 after July’s 93.1.
  • ECONOMY: Canada raw material prices (July), Brazil IGP-M inflation index (Aug.), Mexico unemployment rate (July), China industrial profits (July), Portugal retail sales (July), Portugal industrial production (July), German inflation (Aug.), Spanish inflation (Aug.), Italian consumer and business confidence (Aug.), U.K. GfK consumer confidence (Aug.), Hungary unemployment rate (July), Czech GDP (second quarter), Polish GDP (second quarter).

Source

-Syfur

The Week Ahead: August 17 – 21

August 16, 2015

Housing Starts, Fed Minutes, Japan GDP: Week Ahead Aug. 17-21

MONDAY, AUG. 17

  • EnerCom’s The Oil & Gas Conference. Officials at exploration and production companies including Continental Resources Inc., Halcon Resources Corp. and Cheniere Energy Inc. will be presenting. The conference is through Aug. 19 in Denver.
  • Japan releases second-quarter gross domestic product data, with economists projecting that the world’s third-largest economy contracted 1.8 percent in the period.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Empire State manufacturing (Aug.), U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment (Aug.), U.S. net foreign securities purchases (June), Thailand GDP (second quarter), Turkey unemployment rate (May), Russia may report industrial production (July), U.K. Rightmove house prices (Aug.), euro area trade balance (June).

TUESDAY, AUG. 18

  • U.S. housing starts probably climbed in July for a second month, economists forecast the Commerce Department to report. Steady job gains, low mortgage rates and a gradual easing of lending standards are propelling sales.
  • ECONOMY: Chile GDP (second quarter), China property prices (July), CPI Forecast (Aug.), Czech PPI (July), Poland wages (July), Ukraine industrial production (July), Russia may report PPI (July), U.K. inflation and producer-price data (July), U.K. ONS house-price report (June), Portugal PPI (July).

WEDNESDAY, AUG. 19

  • Consumer prices in the U.S. probably crept higher in July, leaving the year-over-year advance well short of the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal, economists project the Labor Department to report.
  • The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July 28-29 meeting that may shed light on the debate policy makers are having over the timing of the first increase in the nation’s benchmark interest rate since 2006. Investors are pricing in a 42 percent chance of a rate increase at the Sept. 16-17 meeting. 2:00 p.m. EST in Washington.
  • Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, will probably report that returns were little changed in the second quarter.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), Japan trade (July), South Africa CPI (July), South Africa retail sales (June), Poland industrial output (July), Poland PPI (July), Poland retail sales (July), Russia wages (July), Russia retail sales (July), Russia unemployment rate (July), ECB current account (June).

THURSDAY, AUG. 20

  • Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably cooled in July after reaching an eight-year high a month earlier, economists project a National Association of Realtors report will show. The housing market has picked up in recent months as the labor market strengthens and borrowing costs stay near historical lows.
  • Greece deadline. The country must make a 3.2 billion-euro ($3.6 billion) payment to the European Central Bank by Aug. 20. Greece’s creditors are seeking to reach an agreement on an aid program in time for the country to make the payment.
  • The American Petroleum Institute releases its monthly report on U.S. oil inventories and demand.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly and August expectations), U.S. leading economic indicators (July), U.S. Philadelphia manufacturing index (August), Brazil unemployment rate (July), Mexico GDP (second quarter), Norway GDP (second quarter), Russian central bank reserves (Aug. 14), Hungary economic sentiment (Aug.), Netherlands consumer confidence (Aug.), Netherlands unemployment (July), U.K. retail sales (July), U.K. CBI trends survey (Aug.).

FRIDAY, AUG. 21

  • Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly report on futures and options positions for oil.
  • ECONOMY: Brazil IPCA-15 inflation index (Aug.), Mexico retail sales (June), Estonia PPI (July), Slovenia PPI (July), Latvia PPI (July), German GfK consumer confidence (Sept.), U.K. public finances (July), euro area consumer confidence (Aug.).

Source

-Syfur

The week ahead August 8-14

August 9, 2015

U.S. Retail Sales, Euro-Area GDP, China

Sat/Sun:

Chinese data over the weekend:

  • Chinese exports tumbled 8.3 percent in July, their biggest drop in four months and far worse than expected, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will be forced to roll out more stimulus to support the world’s second-largest economy.
  • Imports also fell heavily from a year earlier, in line with market forecasts but suggesting domestic demand might be too feeble to offset the weaker global demand for China’s exports.
  • Economists had forecast exports to fall just 1 percent, after a 2.8 percent uptick in June, but the data on Saturday showed depressed demand from Europe and the first drop in exports to the United States, China’s biggest market, since March.
  • Exports to the European Union fell 12.3 percent in July while those to the United States dropped 1.3 percent. Demand from Japan, another big trading partner, slid 13 percent.
  • Imports fell 8.1 percent, according to the data from the General Administration of Customs. That compared with forecasts for an 8 percent drop, after a 6.1 percent decline in June, though these falls also reflected weaker commodity prices. China recorded a trade surplus of $43.03 billion for the month, below forecasts of $53.25 billion.
  • “A recovery in external demand remains far off and economic growth will continue to rely on domestic demand, which implies policies should continue to be relaxed in the second half,” wrote Qu Hongbin, China economist at global bank HSBC.
  • China’s consumer inflation ticked up slightly in July but remained tame enough to give policy makers plenty of room to use more aggressive measures to boost a sluggish economy.
  • China’s consumer-price index rose 1.6% in July from a year earlier, picking up pace from the 1.4% year-over-year rise in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Sunday. The producer-price index dropped 5.4% in July from a year earlier, accelerating its decline from a 4.8% year-over-year drop in June, and exceeding market forecasts. The PPI also declined 0.7% in July from June. In June, it fell 0.4% from the preceding month. The year-over-year fall in the producer-price index is the worst in nearly six years.

Monday, August 10:

  • China reports new local-currency lending, aggregate financing and M2 money supply for July as authorities seek to stabilize the stock market after $4 trillion in losses. In June, aggregate financing beat all 23 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, rising the most since January. Money supply grew 11.8 percent, the most since February.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its Drilling Productivity Report, showing estimates for oil and gas output from the biggest shale formations.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. labor market conditions index (July), U.S. mortgage delinquencies (week of Aug. 10, second quarter), Bank of France business sentiment (July), Portugal trade balance (June).

Tuesday, August 11:

  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, including July production figures from Saudi Arabia and Iran.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlookwith forecasts for oil, natural gas, power prices and supply.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. NFIB small business optimism (July), U.S. nonfarm productivity (second quarter), U.S. wholesale inventories (June), Canada housing starts (July), Mexico industrial production (June), Germany Zew index (Aug.), Russia may report GDP (second quarter), Singapore GDP (second quarter), Turkey current account balance (June), Israel trade balance (July), South Africa manufacturing (June).

Wednesday, August 12:

  • The International Energy Agency issues its monthly Oil Market Report with the latest forecasts for global oil supply and demand.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates are issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. JOLTS job openings (June), U.S. budget statement (July), Brazil retail sales (June), U.K. wages and unemployment rate (June), Portugal CPI (July), euro-area industrial production (June), Russia may report GDP (second quarter), China retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment (July).

Thursday, August 13:

  • The World Gold Council releases its Gold Demand Trends report for the second quarter.
  • Retail sales in the U.S. probably rebounded in July after a broad-based setback a month earlier, helped in part by more motor vehicle purchases, economists project the Commerce Department will report.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. import prices (July), U.S. jobless claims (weekly), Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. business inventories (June), Canada new housing price index (June), Germany CPI (July, final), U.K. RICS house prices (July), Greek GDP (second quarter), Malaysia GDP (second quarter), South Africa mining production (June).

Friday, August 14:

  • Euro-area gross domestic product. The area’s economy is forecast to expand 0.4 percent in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg’s most recent poll.
  • U.S. industrial production probably increased in July, just the second advance this year, economists project the Federal Reserve will report. Output at factories has been restrained by weaker capital spending, a stronger dollar and tepid overseas economies.
  • Consumer sentiment in the U.S. probably improved in August, economists forecast the University of Michigan’s preliminary index will show. Through July, the gauge has held above 90 for eight straight months, the longest such stretch since a 17-month period ended in early 2005 and a sign Americans’ optimism is holding up.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. producer prices (July), Canada manufacturing sales (June), Argentina inflation (July), euro-area CPI (July, final), Portugal GDP (second quarter), France GDP (second quarter), Germany GDP (second quarter), Dutch GDP (second quarter), Italy GDP (second quarter), Czech GDP (second quarter), Hungary GDP (second quarter), Slovakia GDP (second quarter), Poland GDP (second quarter), Hong Kong GDP (second quarter), Taiwan GDP (second quarter), Israel CPI (July).

 

Source

 

-Syfur

The week ahead: July 13-18

July 12, 2015

Monday, July 13:

  • Chinese exports probably expanded in June following three months of declines. The nation’s trade surplus may have shrunk and imports likely fell.
  • The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is expected to include the organization’s first forecasts for 2016.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its monthly Drilling Productivity Report, outlining the latest outlook for shale.
  • Puerto Rico officials are scheduled to meet with creditors in New York to discuss a restructuring plan for the junk-rated commonwealth as it falls further into a fiscal crisis.
  • Trade talks. The U.S. and European Union hold their 10th round of negotiations on the planned Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP, in an effort to have most of a draft deal ready by year-end.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. budget statement (June), Serbia CPI (June).

Tuesday, July 14:

  • Sales at U.S. retailers probably climbed in June for a fourth straight month, boosted by job gains and stable prices at the gas pump, economists forecast the Commerce Department will report
  • ECONOMY: U.S. import price index (June), NFIB U.S. small business optimism (June), U.S. business inventories (May), Brazil retail sales (May), Teranet Canada home prices (June), Singapore GDP (second quarter), U.K. inflation (June), German ZEW index (July), euro-area industrial production (May), Bulgaria CPI (June).
  • EARNINGS: Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Fastenal Co., Wells Fargo & Co., CSX Corp., Yum! Brands Inc., SEB AB.

Wednesday, July 15:

  • The Bank of Japan will announce monetary policy after a two-day meeting in Tokyo. The central bank will also update growth and inflation forecasts, with its meeting typically ending at about midday and followed by a press conference with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.
  • China may say second-quarter economic growth slid to 6.8 percent, the slowest since 2009, as a stock-market plunge and property slump weighed on the world’s second-largest economy. The country will also announce industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales data for June.
  • The European Commission will publish a package of documents on climate and energy policies, including a draft law seeking to bring in stricter carbon targets for 2030 and a policy paper on empowering consumers in the energy market.
  • Industrial production in the U.S. probably climbed in June, reflecting a weather-driven increase in utility output, economists project the Federal Reserve will report. Production at factories probably barely improved, the data may also show.
  • The Bank of Canada may leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Eleven of the 26 economists polled as of July 9 see the central bank cutting the rate by a quarter point to 0.5 percent.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. producer prices (June), U.S. Empire State manufacturing (July), U.S. Fed’s Beige Book, Argentina inflation (June), Canada existing home sales (June), South Korea unemployment (June), U.K. unemployment (May/June), South Africa retail sales (May), Ghana CPI (June), Israel CPI (June), Turkey unemployment (April), Croatia CPI (June), Poland CPI (June), Russia may report industrial production (June).
  • EARNINGS: U.S. Bancorp, BlackRock Inc., Bank of America Corp., Kinder Morgan Inc., Netflix Inc., Intel Corp., PNC Financial Services Group Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc., Storebrand ASA.

Thursday, July 16:

  • European Central Bank policy decision. The ECB’s Governing Council meets for a scheduled monetary-policy meeting.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (July), U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment (July), Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities (May), New Zealand CPI (second quarter), euro-area inflation (June), Nigeria CPI (June), Israel GDP (first quarter), Russia may report industrial production (June), Slovakia CPI (June), Slovenia unemployment (May), Russian gold and foreign currency reserves (July 10).
  • EARNINGS: Blackstone Group LP, BB&T Corp., PPG Industries Inc., Charles Schwab Corp., UnitedHealth Group Inc., EBay Inc., Sherwin-Williams Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., Mattel Inc., Schlumberger Ltd., Google Inc., Philip Morris International Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Swedbank AB, Nordea Bank AB.

Friday, July 17:

  • U.S. consumer prices probably rose in June as the cost of food and fuel increased, economists forecast a Labor Department report will show. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is hovering close to the Federal Reserve’s goal.
  • U.S. housing starts probably climbed in June after falling a month earlier, indicating slow progress in the industry, economists project the Commerce Department will report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment (July preliminary), Canada CPI (June), ECB survey of professional forecasters, Poland industrial output (June), Poland retail sales (June), Russia retail sales (June), Russia unemployment rate (June), Ukraine industrial production (June).
  • EARNINGS: Honeywell International Inc., SunTrust Banks Inc., Comerica Inc., General Electric Co., Kansas City Southern, Volvo AB, Electrolux AB, Kone Oyj.

Saturday, July 18:

  • China’s statistics bureau will announce June property prices. Home prices fell in fewer cities for a third month in May as buyer confidence returned after property curbs were eased and interest rates fell.

Source

Greek Votes “No” (Voters reject Bailout Offer); expect global equities sell off on Monday

July 5, 2015

  • Figures published by the interior ministry showed 61% of those whose ballots had been counted voting “No”, against 39% voting “Yes”, according to BBC.
  • European stock and bond markets are set to take a sharp hit on Monday after Greece voted ‘No’ to harsh bailout conditions, and bankers said the European Central Bank’s response was now key to the extent of contagion, according to Reuters.
  • “The ECB has the capacity to limit the spread of contagion. But we might still see a fall of 3 percent on European markets on Monday,” said Antonin Jullier, head of equity trading strategy at Citi.(Goldman Sachs has predicted that there could be an initial 10% wiped off the European shares)

Whats next?

  • European Council President Donald Tusk called a euro zone summit for Tuesday to discuss the Greek debt crisis after Greeks voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to reject the terms of a bailout

    European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will hold a conference call with Tusk, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on the Greek situation on Monday morning, the Commission said.

    When is the next deadline?

  • Greece missed a payment to the International Monetary Fund last week and the clock will tick down to 20 July when Greece must repay €3.5bn to the ECB – the final deadline, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If they missed that, “It would then be very difficult to repair the relationship between Athens and the Europeans, at least under the current political configuration in Greece, according to The Guardian.

Source

-Syfur

The Week Ahead July 6th-10th

July 3, 2015

**The Greek referendum on Sunday will determine the move on equities next week. A “YES” vote will keep headline risk high as new negotiations between Athens and its creditors take place and a new government begins to shape, with stocks hovering near current levels in increased volatility. A “NO” vote could be a repeat of last Monday’s selloff as traders push the risk-off button and get out of the market’s way while the future of Greece in the euro zone becomes more clear.

Monday July 6:

  • Service industries in the U.S. probably expanded in June at a faster pace than the previous month, signaling the economy is improving after a weak start to the year, according to the median economist forecast of the Institute for Supply Management’s index.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Markit services index (June final), U.S. labor market conditions index (June), Canada Ivey PMI (June), Canada business sales optimism (2Q), German factory orders (May), Swiss CPI (June), Ukraine CPI (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)

Tuesday July 7:

  • Greek banks are scheduled to reopen.
  • The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in May as a stronger economy boosted demand for imports, economists project the Commerce Department to report. 08:30 in Washington.
  • Iran deadline. Talks in Vienna to reach a final accord on limiting the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program were extended to today from an initial self-imposed cutoff date of June 30.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlook with forecasts for oil, natural gas, power prices and supply.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. job openings/labor turnover (May), U.S. consumer credit (May), Canada trade balance (May), Taiwan inflation (June), Taiwan exports/imports (June), German industrial production (May), U.K. industrial production (May), Swiss unemployment (June), Swiss National Bank foreign-currency reserves (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)

Wednesday July 8:

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • (2 p.m. ET) FOMC minutes from June 16-17 meeting.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, speaks at the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), Brazil IPCA inflation index (June), Japan current account (May), Korean bank lending to households (June), Korean money supply (May), Turkey industrial production (May), Hungary CPI (June).
  • ALCOA starts off Q315 earnings season.

Thursday July 9:

  • Chinese consumer inflation may have accelerated in June, after slowing in May, signaling the start of an economic recovery. Factory-gate price deflation may have stabilized.
  • The International Monetary Fund will release revisions to its World Economic Outlook report.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Canada housing starts (June), Mexico inflation (June), Australia jobless rate (June), German exports (May), U.K. RICS house prices (June), British Chambers of Commerce publishes 2Q economic forecasts, Greek CPI (June), Greek unemployment (April), South Africa manufacturing growth (May), Czech CPI (June), Russia gold and foreign currency reserves (July 3).

Friday July 10:

  • Chinese new lending may have increased in June for a second month, suggesting continued monetary easing is reaching the larger economy.
  • The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil market report with an outlook on global crude demand, supply and stockpiles. The report has projections through the end of 2016.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. wholesale inventories (May), Canada unemployment (June), Mexico industrial production (May), U.K. trade balance (May), U.K. construction output (May), French industrial production (May), Italian industrial production (May), Greek industrial production (May), Turkey current account balance (May), Portugal consumer price index (June).

Source

-Syfur

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