July 3, 2015
**The Greek referendum on Sunday will determine the move on equities next week. A “YES” vote will keep headline risk high as new negotiations between Athens and its creditors take place and a new government begins to shape, with stocks hovering near current levels in increased volatility. A “NO” vote could be a repeat of last Monday’s selloff as traders push the risk-off button and get out of the market’s way while the future of Greece in the euro zone becomes more clear.
Monday July 6:
- Service industries in the U.S. probably expanded in June at a faster pace than the previous month, signaling the economy is improving after a weak start to the year, according to the median economist forecast of the Institute for Supply Management’s index.
- ECONOMY: U.S. Markit services index (June final), U.S. labor market conditions index (June), Canada Ivey PMI (June), Canada business sales optimism (2Q), German factory orders (May), Swiss CPI (June), Ukraine CPI (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)
Tuesday July 7:
- Greek banks are scheduled to reopen.
- The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in May as a stronger economy boosted demand for imports, economists project the Commerce Department to report. 08:30 in Washington.
- Iran deadline. Talks in Vienna to reach a final accord on limiting the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program were extended to today from an initial self-imposed cutoff date of June 30.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlook with forecasts for oil, natural gas, power prices and supply.
- ECONOMY: U.S. job openings/labor turnover (May), U.S. consumer credit (May), Canada trade balance (May), Taiwan inflation (June), Taiwan exports/imports (June), German industrial production (May), U.K. industrial production (May), Swiss unemployment (June), Swiss National Bank foreign-currency reserves (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)
Wednesday July 8:
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
- (2 p.m. ET) FOMC minutes from June 16-17 meeting.
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, speaks at the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles.
- ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), Brazil IPCA inflation index (June), Japan current account (May), Korean bank lending to households (June), Korean money supply (May), Turkey industrial production (May), Hungary CPI (June).
- ALCOA starts off Q315 earnings season.
Thursday July 9:
- Chinese consumer inflation may have accelerated in June, after slowing in May, signaling the start of an economic recovery. Factory-gate price deflation may have stabilized.
- The International Monetary Fund will release revisions to its World Economic Outlook report.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
- ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Canada housing starts (June), Mexico inflation (June), Australia jobless rate (June), German exports (May), U.K. RICS house prices (June), British Chambers of Commerce publishes 2Q economic forecasts, Greek CPI (June), Greek unemployment (April), South Africa manufacturing growth (May), Czech CPI (June), Russia gold and foreign currency reserves (July 3).
Friday July 10:
- Chinese new lending may have increased in June for a second month, suggesting continued monetary easing is reaching the larger economy.
- The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil market report with an outlook on global crude demand, supply and stockpiles. The report has projections through the end of 2016.
- ECONOMY: U.S. wholesale inventories (May), Canada unemployment (June), Mexico industrial production (May), U.K. trade balance (May), U.K. construction output (May), French industrial production (May), Italian industrial production (May), Greek industrial production (May), Turkey current account balance (May), Portugal consumer price index (June).