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Why Is the Japanese Yen a Safe-Haven Currency?

June 19, 2016

swiss-franc-yen-750x320

Japanese yen pushed higher by Fed, safe-haven flows amid Brexit fears

Recently there have been a lot of headlines regarding the Yen’s strength (FYI- there’s a distinction shared by the Swiss franc which is also often considered a safe haven currency but that is a another story..) due to market uncertainty surrounding the Brexit issue.

Two factors I wanted to touch on that explains the dynamic of why the Yen is considered a “safe haven” currency:

  • Japan has always been a large exporter and has continually exported significantly more goods and services than it imports. The result has been decades of current account surpluses that have positioned Japan as a net creditor to the world. Japan also has the highest debt-to-GDP levels, however, as investopedia stated: traders often balance the high debt level of Japan with its high trade surplus.

 

  • The Yen is a favorite to finance currency carry trades since Japan’s interest rate is so low (note at the time of this writing BOJ recently adopted a negative interest rate policy; Japan’s current interest rate is -0.01%). From Investopedia: A carry trade is a strategy in which an investor borrows money at a low interest rate in order to invest in an asset that is likely to provide a higher return. This strategy is very common in the foreign exchange market. So in other words, investors can borrow Yen at a very low interest rate and buy a higher yielding asset/and/or currency.

 

Sources:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/japanese-yen-what-fx-traders-should-know.asp

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/matthew-kerkhoff/why-japanese-yen-safe-haven-currency

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/16/japanese-yen-pushed-higher-by-fed-safe-haven-flows-amid-brexit-fears.html

 

 

The Week Ahead: Mar 7-11

March 6, 2016

Theme for the week:

U.S. stocks will trade Monday on a three week winning streak. The catalysts to watch for this week will be 1) economic data out of China; 2) ECB meeting on 3/10. The European Central Bank will meet to make a decision whether or not to again lower the region’s interest rates in order to stimulate the European economy; general consensus is a 10-20 basis point cut, according to The Financial Times.

Monday, March 7

  • Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, delivers the luncheon lecture at the annual policy conference of the National Association for Business Economics.
  • Deutsche Bank AG hosts the 24th Annual Media, Internet & Telecom Conference. Companies giving keynote presentations include AT&T Inc., CBS Corp., Snapchat Inc., Verizon Communications Inc., T-Mobile US Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Liberty Media Corp.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its monthly Drilling Productivity Report, showing estimates for oil and gas output from the biggest shale formations.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. labor market conditions index (Feb.), U.S. consumer credit (Jan.), Taiwan trade data (Feb.), China foreign reserves (Feb.), Euro area sentix investor confidence (March), German factory orders (Jan.), Hungary budget balance (Feb.), South Africa gross and net reserves (Feb.), Israel foreign-currency balance (Feb.), Egypt foreign reserves (Feb.).

Tuesday, March 8

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on oil, gas and power.
  • Economic news for the day: NFIB U.S. small-business optimism index (Feb.), China trade surplus, imports, exports (Feb.), Taiwan inflation (Feb.), Japan final GDP (fourth quarter), euro area GDP (fourth quarter), Romania GDP (fourth quarter), Hungary GDP (fourth quarter), Hungary CPI (Feb.), South Africa current-account balance (fourth quarter), Turkey industrial production (Jan.).

Wednesday, March 9

  • Norway’s sovereign wealth fund releases a report on its investments in 2015 at 10:00 CET (04:00 EST) in Oslo.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its oil inventory report.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. wholesale inventories (Jan.), World Agricultural and Demand Estimate WASDE report (Feb.), Brazil IPCA inflation (Feb.), Mexico inflation (Feb.), U.K. industrial production (Jan.), U.K. manufacturing production (Jan.), U.K. NIESR GDP estimate (Feb.), Czech CPI (Feb.), Ukraine CPI (Feb.), Nigeria GDP (fourth quarter).

Thursday, March 10

  • The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets to review interest rates and stimulus programs. President Mario Draghi gives a press conference 45 minutes after the 13:45 CET rate decision (07:45 EST).
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas inventory report.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. quarterly services survey (4Q), U.S. household net worth (4Q), U.S. budget statement (Feb.), Brazil retail sales (Jan.), Colombia GDP (4Q), China inflation (Feb.), China new lending, money supply (Feb.) anytime March 10-15, Germany trade data (Jan.), Estonia GDP (fourth quarter), Portugal CPI (Feb.), South Africa manufacturing production (Jan.), Israel GDP(fourth quarter), Egypt CPI (Feb.), Turkey current-account balance (Jan.).

Friday, March 11

  • PJM Interconnection LLC, operator of the largest U.S. power grid, will announce the results of an electricity capacity auction. The results may show the impact of recent plant retirements and PJM’s cuts to its long-term demand growth forecasts.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. import-price index (Feb.), Canada unemployment (Feb.), Mexico industrial production (Jan.), U.K. trade report (Jan.), U.K. construction output (Jan.), Romania CPI (Feb.), Serbia CPI (Feb.), Russian weekly CPI (March 9), Portugal trade balance (Jan.).

Source

-Syfur

 

The Week Ahead: Feb 15-19

February 14, 2016

Theme for the week: The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its late-January meeting on Wednesday. The global market volatility so far in 2016 has many economists wondering whether the Fed will keep the current rates in place rather than moving forward with plans for multiple incremental hikes in 2016. Last week, Fed chair Janet Yellen told Congress that she still expects rates to increase gradually throughout the year.

MONDAY, FEB. 15

  • Japan’s economy contracted an annualized 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to estimates for GDP data. This would be the fifth quarter the economy has contracted in the three years since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe returned to power.
  • Economic news for the day: China January trade data (Jan.), China new loans, money supply data (Jan.), South Korea household borrowing data (Jan.), Thailand GDP (fourth quarter), U.K. Rightmove house prices (Feb.), Turkey budget balance (Jan.), Israel CPI(Jan.), Romania CPI (Jan.), Poland budget (Jan.), Ukraine GDP (fourth quarter), Russia industrial production (Jan.).

TUESDAY, FEB. 16

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will deliver a speech on the 2016 economic forecast at the University of Delaware’s Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship. 09:00 EST in Newark, Delaware.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. Empire State manufacturing (Feb.), U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment (Feb.), U.S. Treasury net foreign securities purchases (Dec.), Brazil retail sales (Dec.), Taiwan trade data (Jan.), U.K. inflation (Jan.), German ZEW index (Feb.), Israel annualized GDP (fourth quarter), Czech GDP (fourth quarter).

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 17

  • The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its Jan. 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On Feb. 10, Fed Chair Janet Yellen told Congress the central bank still expects to raise interest rates gradually while making it clear that continued market turmoil could throw policy makers off the course of the multiple increases they have forecast for 2016. 2:00 p.m. EST.
  • New-home construction in the U.S. probably increased in January, indicating steady progress in the housing market. The Commerce Department will issue its housing starts and building permits data at 08:30 in Washington.
  • Industrial production in the U.S. probably climbed in January for the first time in five months, a report from the Federal Reserve is projected to show. 09:15 in Washington.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its oil inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. producer price index (Jan.), Taiwan GDP (fourth quarter), South Korea unemployment (Jan.), South Africa CPI (Jan.), South Africa retail sales (Dec.), Nigeria CPI (Jan.), U.K. unemployment (Dec./Jan.), Poland industrial output (Jan.), Poland retail sales (Jan.), Russian weekly CPI (Feb. 15).

THURSDAY, FEB. 18

  • Leaders of the 28 EU governments begin a two-day summit in Brussels.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report. 11:00 in Washington.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (Feb.), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly and Feb. expectations), U.S. leading economic indicators (Jan.), China CPI (Jan.), Australia employment (Jan.), Malaysia GDP (fourth quarter), Turkey survey of expectations(Feb.), Israel CPI forecast (Feb.), Russia wages (Jan.), Russian retail sales (Jan.).

FRIDAY, FEB. 19

  • U.S. consumer prices probably declined in January for a second month as gasoline costs continued to retreat. Excluding fuel and food, the core consumer-price index is forecast to rise at a faster pace. The Labor Department will issue the data at 08:30 in Washington.
  • Economic news for the day: Canada CPI (Jan.), Canada retail sales (Dec.), U.K. retail sales (Jan.), U.K. budget data (Jan.), Turkey consumer confidence index (Feb.).

 

Source

 

 

WSJ: Lifting of sanctions over Iranian oil exports sparks concerns that prices will move even lower

February 14, 2016

Hi all,

Thought this recent WSJ article was interesting and just wanted to pass it along-

Summary:

  • International sanctions against Tehran were lifted, raising the prospect of an estimated extra 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude flooding the oversupplied global market.
  • The lifting of Iranian sanctions should add to the selling momentum in oil prices,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of commodities research at Switzerland’s Julius Baer.The oil market is seemingly facing its final washout while transitioning into a new normal.
  • The exact timeline for the ramp-up of Iranian crude oil exports is still unknown.
  • Analysts at Commerzbank said that it is unlikely that the Iranian production volume will be increased significantly this year.
  • After all, Iraq and Libya took roughly twelve months to regain their original production levels following the wars in 2003 and 2011 respectively. Because Iran was unable to invest in its oil infrastructure for several years due to the sanctions and now has to make up for this, it is likely to take more rather than less time for oil production to normalize,” the bank said in a note to clients.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said that the market would start to rebalance later this year as weak prices take their toll on production outside the cartel.

Source

Domain renewed

February 9, 2016

The Week Ahead: Oct 5 – 9 (Third Quarter Earnings Is About To Start)

October 4, 2015

MONDAY, OCT. 5

  • U.S. service industries probably grew at a slower pace in September than a month earlier, a report from the Institute for Supply Management is projected to show. A reading above 50 in the non-manufacturing index indicates expansion in the industries that account for almost 90 percent of the economy.
  • Euro-area finance ministers meet to discuss Greece’s progress on steps needed to receive bailout loans for the first time since the country’s elections.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel begins a two-day official visit to India that will include talks with government leaders and a stop in Bangalore.
  • Patriot Coal Corp.’s restructuring plan will be heard in U.S. Bankruptcy Court.
  • Oil and gas drillers including Whiting Petroleum Corp., Southwestern Energy Co. and PDC Energy Inc. are scheduled to present at the Independent Petroleum Association of America’s OGIS San Francisco conference.
  • ECONOMY: Markit U.S. Services PMI (Sept. final)., U.S. labor market conditions index (Sept.), Taiwan foreign reserves (Sept.), Turkey CPI, euro-area services PMI (Sept.), U.K. services PMI (Sept.), Russian services, composite PMI (Sept.).

TUESDAY, OCT. 6

  • The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in August as sales to overseas customers weakened and imports picked up on the heels of resilient domestic demand, figures from the Commerce Department are projected to show.
  • The International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook, followed by a press conference in Lima, leading up to the Oct. 9-11 annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. The fund in July cut its forecast for global growth this year to 3.3 percent, from the 3.5 percent pace projected in April.
  • Moody’s Investors Service holds its 17th annual conference to discuss the challenges and opportunities ahead for Brazil. Mauro Leos, the rating company’s senior analyst for Brazil, is scheduled to discuss the outlook for the country’s sovereign grade.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook, including its once-yearly winter fuels review.
  • Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit 2015. Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Global Markets Institute President Abby Joseph Cohen and Terra Firma Capital Partners Founder Guy Hands are among speakers at the fifth annual conference taking place simultaneously in New York, London and Hong Kong.
  • The U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing on the “potential modernization of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and related energy security issues.”
  • McDonald’s Corp. begins offering all-day breakfast across its U.S. locations as part of Chief Executive Officer Steve Easterbrook’s effort to revive domestic sales.
  • ECONOMY: Canada Ivey purchasing managers index (Sept.), Canada trade balance (Aug.), Taiwan CPI (Sept.), German factory orders (Aug.), Swiss CPI (Sept.), Czech trade balance (Aug.), Hungary budget balance (Sept.), Ukraine CPI, PPI (Sept.)

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 7

  • Volkswagen AG faces a deadline from German regulators to say how it will bring 2.8 million diesel-engine models in its home market up to emissions standards following a U.S. pollution-test cheating scandal that led to the resignation of Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn.
  • The International Monetary Fund releases further research from its Global Financial Stability Report, followed by a press briefing, in Lima, leading up to the Oct. 9-11 annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
  • Norway announces its budget bill for 2016. The government of western Europe’s biggest oil producer has said it will increase spending and lower taxes to cope with a downturn in the oil markets.
  • The Congressional Budget Office is scheduled to release a final estimate for the U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2015. The nonpartisan government agency in August forecast that the shortfall would narrow to $426 billion in the year that ended Sept. 30.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: MBA U.S. mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. consumer credit (Aug.), Brazil IPCA (Sept.), Taiwan import, exports, trade balance (Sept.), Hong Kong foreign reserves (Sept.), China foreign reserves (Sept.), Israel foreign-currency reserves (Sept.), German industrial production (Aug.), U.K. industrial production (Aug.), Romania GDP (second quarter), Czech industrial output (Aug.), Czech retail sales (Aug.), Hungary industrial production (Aug.), Croatia trade balance (July).

THURSDAY, OCT. 8

  • International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and World Bank President Jim Yong Kim give press briefings at 09:00 (10:00 EDT) and 10:00 (11:00 EDT), respectively, in Lima ahead of their organizations’ Oct. 9-11 annual meetings in the Peruvian capital.
  • Bank of England decision. The Monetary Policy Committee will probably leave its key interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve publishes minutes of the Sept. 16-17 meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee, when policy makers left the benchmark federal funds rate at zero to 0.25 percent.
  • U.S. House lawmakers elect the next speaker. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Representative Daniel Webster are running to replace Speaker John Boehner, who announced on Sept. 25 that he would resign from Congress at the end of October.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Canada housing starts (Sept.), Mexico inflation (Sept.), China foreign direct investment (Sept.) any day Oct. 8-Oct. 12, Japan current account (Aug.), Turkey industrial production (Aug.), Egypt CPI (Sept.), U.K. RICS house-price index (Sept.), German trade balance (Aug.), Bank of France business sentiment (Sept.), Hungary CPI (Sept.), Russia current account (third quarter), South Africa manufacturing production (Aug.)
  • EARNINGS: Alcoa Inc., Fast Retailing Co.

FRIDAY, OCT. 9

  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, which includes closely watched numbers for crops such as corn and soybeans.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. import prices (Sept.), U.S. wholesale inventories (Aug.), Canada unemployment rate (Sept.), U.K. trade balance (Aug.), Czech CPI (Sept.), Hungary trade balance (Aug.), Slovakia trade balance, industrial production (Aug.), Estonia trade balance (Aug.).

Source

-Syfur

The Week Ahead Sept. 28 – Oct. 2

September 27, 2015

MONDAY, SEPT. 28

  • U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this week at the request of Putin. The meeting would mark the first face-to-face talks between the leaders in more than a year, and will focus on the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley discusses monetary policy in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.
  • U.S. personal spending and incomes probably advanced in August, fueled by a stronger labor market, a report from the Commerce Department is projected to show.
  • ECONOMY: Pending U.S. home sales (Aug.), Dallas Fed manufacturing index (Sept.), Mexico unemployment rate (Aug.), China industrial profits (Aug.), Italian consumer confidence (Sept.).

TUESDAY, SEPT. 29

  • Home prices in 20 U.S. cities probably increased at a faster pace in the 12 months ended in July, according to an index from S&P/Case-Shiller.
  • Consumer confidence probably declined in September as volatility in U.S. equity markets picked up on concerns about the global economy.
  • ECONOMY: Brazil IGP-M inflation index (Sept.), euro-area economic confidence (Sept.), German CPI (Sept.), U.K. mortgage approvals (Aug.), Hungary unemployment (Aug.), Russia current account (second quarter), Croatia industrial output (Aug.).

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 30

  • Last day of fiscal 2015. U.S. federal agencies operating non-essential services, such as national parks and Internal Revenue Service taxpayer-information phone lines, won’t have the authority to spend money beginning tomorrow without a congressionally approved appropriations bill or a stopgap funding measure for the 2016 fiscal year. At issue in this year’s bill is funding for the women’s health organization Planned Parenthood, a target of anti-abortion groups and more than 40 conservative Republicans. A legislative impasse triggered a 16-day government shutdown in October 2013.
  • Canada reports gross domestic product for July. Statistics Canada reported for June that output grew by 0.5 percent after five previous contractions.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • Madison Square Garden Co. splits into two companies, with one holding the sports and entertainment units — home of the New York Knicks basketball team and Radio City Music Hall — and the other consisting of regional sports networks.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard make opening remarks at the central bank’s annual Community Banking Research and Policy Conference.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. ADP employment (Sept.), Chicago purchasing managers index (Sept.), Brazil primary budget balance (Aug.), S. Korea business confidence survey (Oct.), Japan industrial production (Aug.), Japan retail sales (Aug.), South Africa trade balance (Aug.), Kenya CPI (Sept.), euro-area CPI (Sept.), euro-area unemployment (Aug.), German unemployment rate (Sept.), U.K. GDP (second quarter), Italian unemployment rate (Aug.), Italian CPI (Sept.), Portugal retail sales (Aug.), Portugal industrial production (Aug.), Poland CPI (Sept.), Turkey trade balance (Aug.), Egypt GDP (second quarter).

Thursday, OCT. 1

  • China will announce its official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for September. The reading fell in August to the lowest in three years as monetary easing failed to revive growth drivers weighed by overcapacity and sliding prices. Caixin Media and Markit Economics are also scheduled to announce their own version of the PMI index.
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to make a televised address on the 66th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The nation’s markets will be closed for the weeklong National Day holiday, which ends on Oct. 7.
  • Joe Biden is expected to decide by today whether or not to enter the race for the 2016 Democratic nomination for U.S. president, according to people familiar with the vice president’s thinking.
  • Manufacturing in the U.S. probably expanded in September at the slowest pace since May 2013 as demand from overseas customers weakened.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • New Jersey Transit, the U.S.’s third-biggest rail and bus operator, raises fares an average 9 percent from today in an effort to help close a $120 million budget deficit.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Challenger job-cut announcements (Sept.) U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI (Sept. final), U.S. construction spending (Aug.), Brazil monthly trade balance (Sept.), South Africa manufacturing PMI (Sept.), South Africa consumer confidence (third quarter), euro-area manufacturing PMI (Sept.), U.K. manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Russia current account (third quarter), Russia manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Poland manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Hungary manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Czech manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Turkey manufacturing PMI (Sept.).

Friday, OCT. 2

  • Employers in the U.S. probably added more jobs in September than a month earlier, while the jobless rate held at a seven-year low of 5.1 percent, economists forecast the Labor Department will report.
  • Energy ministers from members of the Group of 20, including oil producers Saudi Arabia, Russia and Mexico, gather in Istanbul.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. factory orders (Aug.), Brazil industrial production (Aug.), Hong Kong retail sales (Aug.), S. Korea consumer prices (Sept.), Japan jobless rate (Aug.), Japan monetary base (Sept.), Japan company inflation expectations from Tankan survey (third quarter), euro-area PPI (Aug.), U.K. construction PMI (Sept.), Romania retail sales (Aug.), Hungary trade balance (July).

Source

-Syfur

The Week Ahead: Sept 21 – 25

September 19, 2015

Business confidence data from China and the euro zone will offer some pointers this week to where the global economy is going after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept markets guessing about when it will begin raising rates.

MONDAY, SEPT. 21:

  • Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably held near the highest level since 2007 in August after unexpectedly rising in July. The National Association of Realtors releases data at 10:00 in Washington.
  • Charter Communications Inc. and Time Warner Cable Inc. hold special meetings for their respective shareholders to vote on Charter’s proposed purchase of Time Warner Cable.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart addresses the Buckhead Rotary Club.

TUESDAY, SEPT. 22:

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a visit to the U.S., his first as China’s leader, amid growing tension over cyberhacking and China’s military moves in the South China Sea. Xi will participate in a Sept. 23 meeting with top U.S. executives that may include Apple Inc.
  • The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission meets to consider proposing a new rule that would require liquidity risk-management programs for open-end management investment companies.
  • Perumin Mining Convention. Peru’s Energy & Mines Minister Rosa Maria Ortiz, its central bank President Julio Velarde and Southern Copper Corp. Chief Executive Officer Oscar Gonzalez Rocha are among scheduled speakers at the gathering in Arequipa, Peru. Through 09/25.

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 23:

  • U.S. President Barack Obama welcomes Pope Francis to Washington at the start of the pontiff’s U.S. visit. Obama will host the pope for talks at the White House, with topics likely to include climate change, income inequality and the refugee crisis in Europe.
  • Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, Ecopetrol SA Chief Executive Officer Juan Carlos Echeverry and Energy Minister Tomas Gonzalez are among scheduled speakers at the Heavy Oil Latin America Conference & Exhibition.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: MBA U.S. mortgage applications (weekly), Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Canada retail sales (July), Brazil current account (Aug.), China Caixin flash manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Taiwan industrial production (Aug.), South Africa CPI (Aug.), South Africa PPI (Aug.), Ghana GDP (second quarter), Russian weekly CPI, Poland unemployment rate (Aug.), Croatia unemployment (Aug.), euro-area preliminary PMIs (Sept.).

THURSDAY, SEPT. 24:

  • -Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lays out goals for the rest of his term after being reappointed this month as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party for another three-year stint that could make him one of Japan’s longest-serving postwar prime ministers. Almost three years after his election, his Abenomics plan of fiscal and monetary stimulus has done little to re-inflate and revive the world’s third-biggest economy, which is on the brink of recession.
  • Sales of new U.S. homes probably continued to rebound in August after recording their biggest gain of the year in July.
  • U.S. durable goods orders probably fell in August for the first time in three months, held back by fewer bookings for commercial aircraft and slower global economic growth.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel and leaders of the country’s 16 regions hold talks to decide on the distribution of extra federal aid to cope with as many as 1 million refugees expected this year.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless (weekly), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index (weekly), Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (Sept.), Brazil unemployment (Aug.), Mexico bi-weekly inflation (Sept. 15), Hong Kong exports, imports, trade balance (Aug.), Germany Ifo business confidence (Sept.), France manufacturing confidence (Sept.).

FRIDAY, SEPT. 25:

  • Confidence among U.S. consumers probably fell less than initially estimated, to 87, in the University of Michigan’s final September index. The gauge’s first estimate on Sept. 11 showed a decline to 85.7 from August’s 91.9 for the largest one-month decline since the end of 2012.

 

Source

 

-Syfur

The Week Ahead: August 24 – 29

August 23, 2015

MONDAY, AUG. 24

  • U.S. President Barack Obama delivers remarks at the eighth annual National Clean Energy Summit in Las Vegas, kicking off a campaign to promote his climate agenda ahead of United Nations-sponsored negotiations in December.
  • India is set to issue a statement on how it plans to reduce carbon emissions as part of its pledge to the United Nations before December’s conference. China, the U.S. and the European Union, the top three producers of greenhouse gases, have already pledged significant reductions. India, the fourth biggest, has yet to do so, and early indications suggest the developing nation won’t be as aggressive.
  • ECONOMY: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July), Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (weekly), Mexico bi-weekly CPI (Aug. 15), Taiwan industrial production (July), Israel unemployment rate (July).

TUESDAY, AUG. 25

  • Home prices in 20 U.S. cities probably climbed at a faster pace in the year ended in June amid a pickup in demand, economists project an S&P/Case-Shiller index will show.
  • Purchases of new U.S. homes probably rebounded in July after unexpectedly retreating in June.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors meets in an extraordinary session to learn details of how the organization will monitor the July 14 nuclear accord signed between Iran and world powers.
  • Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri will discuss international house prices at the Canadian Association for Business Economics’ summer conference in Kingston, Ontario.
  • ECONOMY: FHFA U.S. home price index (June), Markit U.S. services PMI (Aug. preliminary), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Aug.), Brazil current account balance (July), Conference Board China Leading Economic Index (July), Hong Kong exports, imports, trade balance (July), South Africa GDP (second quarter), South Africa mining production (June), Turkey capacity utilization (Aug.), German GDP (second quarter), Ifo German business confidence (Aug.), Czech business and consumer confidence (Aug.), Poland unemployment rate (July).

WEDNESDAY, AUG. 26

  • Orders for U.S. durable goods probably fell in July after rebounding in June on demand for commercial aircraft.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley will answer questions following a 10:00 EDT press briefing on the local and regional economy.
  • The Americas Society/Council of the Americas holds its annual conference in Buenos Aires with speakers including Argentine presidential candidates Mauricio Macri, Daniel Scioli and Sergio Massa, as well as Central Bank President Alejandro Vanoli and executives from Barrick Gold Corp. and Facebook Inc. 09:00.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: MBA U.S. mortgage applications (weekly), Brazil total outstanding loans (July), U.K. CBI retail sales (Aug.).

THURSDAY, AUG. 27

  • U.S. gross domestic product probably grew at a faster annualized rate in the second quarter, according to the median estimate of economists ahead of the Commerce Department’s revised data.
  • Pending sales of existing U.S. homes likely gained in July after unexpectedly falling for the first time this year in June.
  • The U.S. Food and Drug Administration will decide by today on whether to grant marketing approval for Amgen Inc.’s Repatha cholestrol-lowering drug. The decision would follow the agency’s July approval of the similar Praluent, manufactured by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), Kansas City Fed manufacturing (Aug.), Philippines GDP (second quarter), South Africa PPI (July), Turkey foreign tourist arrivals (July), euro-area M3 (July), French manufacturing confidence (Aug.), U.K. Nationwide house prices (Aug.), Russia gold and forex reserves (Aug. 21).

FRIDAY, AUG. 28

  • Japan releases consumer price index data for July, with economists projecting a decline of 0.2 percent for the central bank’s core measure for inflation.
  • The U.K. Office for National Statistics publishes its second estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, which is based on revised output figures, together with some expenditure and income data. It will contain information on consumer and government spending, exports and imports, capital formation, and business investment.
  • Brazil’s economy probably contracted in the second quarter on government austerity measures and the highest interest rates in nine years. Analysts see GDP declining 2 percent this year and 0.15 percent in 2016, which would be Brazil’s longest recession since 1931.
  • U.S. households probably continued spending in July, with the median estimate of economists calling for a 0.4 percent gain in expenditures. The Commerce Department will also report personal income data for that month.
  • Confidence among U.S. consumers was probably little changed in August from a month earlier, with the University of Michigan’s final index expected to register 93.2 after July’s 93.1.
  • ECONOMY: Canada raw material prices (July), Brazil IGP-M inflation index (Aug.), Mexico unemployment rate (July), China industrial profits (July), Portugal retail sales (July), Portugal industrial production (July), German inflation (Aug.), Spanish inflation (Aug.), Italian consumer and business confidence (Aug.), U.K. GfK consumer confidence (Aug.), Hungary unemployment rate (July), Czech GDP (second quarter), Polish GDP (second quarter).

Source

-Syfur

The Week Ahead: August 17 – 21

August 16, 2015

Housing Starts, Fed Minutes, Japan GDP: Week Ahead Aug. 17-21

MONDAY, AUG. 17

  • EnerCom’s The Oil & Gas Conference. Officials at exploration and production companies including Continental Resources Inc., Halcon Resources Corp. and Cheniere Energy Inc. will be presenting. The conference is through Aug. 19 in Denver.
  • Japan releases second-quarter gross domestic product data, with economists projecting that the world’s third-largest economy contracted 1.8 percent in the period.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Empire State manufacturing (Aug.), U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment (Aug.), U.S. net foreign securities purchases (June), Thailand GDP (second quarter), Turkey unemployment rate (May), Russia may report industrial production (July), U.K. Rightmove house prices (Aug.), euro area trade balance (June).

TUESDAY, AUG. 18

  • U.S. housing starts probably climbed in July for a second month, economists forecast the Commerce Department to report. Steady job gains, low mortgage rates and a gradual easing of lending standards are propelling sales.
  • ECONOMY: Chile GDP (second quarter), China property prices (July), CPI Forecast (Aug.), Czech PPI (July), Poland wages (July), Ukraine industrial production (July), Russia may report PPI (July), U.K. inflation and producer-price data (July), U.K. ONS house-price report (June), Portugal PPI (July).

WEDNESDAY, AUG. 19

  • Consumer prices in the U.S. probably crept higher in July, leaving the year-over-year advance well short of the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal, economists project the Labor Department to report.
  • The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July 28-29 meeting that may shed light on the debate policy makers are having over the timing of the first increase in the nation’s benchmark interest rate since 2006. Investors are pricing in a 42 percent chance of a rate increase at the Sept. 16-17 meeting. 2:00 p.m. EST in Washington.
  • Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, will probably report that returns were little changed in the second quarter.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), Japan trade (July), South Africa CPI (July), South Africa retail sales (June), Poland industrial output (July), Poland PPI (July), Poland retail sales (July), Russia wages (July), Russia retail sales (July), Russia unemployment rate (July), ECB current account (June).

THURSDAY, AUG. 20

  • Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably cooled in July after reaching an eight-year high a month earlier, economists project a National Association of Realtors report will show. The housing market has picked up in recent months as the labor market strengthens and borrowing costs stay near historical lows.
  • Greece deadline. The country must make a 3.2 billion-euro ($3.6 billion) payment to the European Central Bank by Aug. 20. Greece’s creditors are seeking to reach an agreement on an aid program in time for the country to make the payment.
  • The American Petroleum Institute releases its monthly report on U.S. oil inventories and demand.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly and August expectations), U.S. leading economic indicators (July), U.S. Philadelphia manufacturing index (August), Brazil unemployment rate (July), Mexico GDP (second quarter), Norway GDP (second quarter), Russian central bank reserves (Aug. 14), Hungary economic sentiment (Aug.), Netherlands consumer confidence (Aug.), Netherlands unemployment (July), U.K. retail sales (July), U.K. CBI trends survey (Aug.).

FRIDAY, AUG. 21

  • Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly report on futures and options positions for oil.
  • ECONOMY: Brazil IPCA-15 inflation index (Aug.), Mexico retail sales (June), Estonia PPI (July), Slovenia PPI (July), Latvia PPI (July), German GfK consumer confidence (Sept.), U.K. public finances (July), euro area consumer confidence (Aug.).

Source

-Syfur

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