- In the 68 years beginning with 1946, the S&P 500 index has risen 10 percent or more 23 times, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. During those 23 years, the market rose the second half of the year 19 times. Eleven of those years, or nearly half, the S&P 500 rose at least 10 percent the second half of the year.
- The best second half was in 1954, in the middle of the stock market’s longest bull run. Stocks increased 26.2 percent July-December. The worst second half was in 1987. The “Black Monday” market crash was Oct. 19, and stocks fell 17.4 percent the second half of the year.
– My personal opinion is that investors will have a tough time for 2nd half of the year because in the first half the Federal Reserve helped stocks rally because of the stimulus it’s been pumping into the economy. The second half will have a rough time because Federal Reserve will be slowing it’s stimulus program down. But there are some factors that might contradict this statement as The housing market is strengthening. Auto sales are strong. Companies continue to earn record profits. Inflation and interest rates are ultra low. The economy is growing moderately and may pick up the second half of the year.
Categories: Equity Capital Markets