The week ahead August 8-14

U.S. Retail Sales, Euro-Area GDP, China


Chinese data over the weekend:

  • Chinese exports tumbled 8.3 percent in July, their biggest drop in four months and far worse than expected, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will be forced to roll out more stimulus to support the world’s second-largest economy.
  • Imports also fell heavily from a year earlier, in line with market forecasts but suggesting domestic demand might be too feeble to offset the weaker global demand for China’s exports.
  • Economists had forecast exports to fall just 1 percent, after a 2.8 percent uptick in June, but the data on Saturday showed depressed demand from Europe and the first drop in exports to the United States, China’s biggest market, since March.
  • Exports to the European Union fell 12.3 percent in July while those to the United States dropped 1.3 percent. Demand from Japan, another big trading partner, slid 13 percent.
  • Imports fell 8.1 percent, according to the data from the General Administration of Customs. That compared with forecasts for an 8 percent drop, after a 6.1 percent decline in June, though these falls also reflected weaker commodity prices. China recorded a trade surplus of $43.03 billion for the month, below forecasts of $53.25 billion.
  • “A recovery in external demand remains far off and economic growth will continue to rely on domestic demand, which implies policies should continue to be relaxed in the second half,” wrote Qu Hongbin, China economist at global bank HSBC.
  • China’s consumer inflation ticked up slightly in July but remained tame enough to give policy makers plenty of room to use more aggressive measures to boost a sluggish economy.
  • China’s consumer-price index rose 1.6% in July from a year earlier, picking up pace from the 1.4% year-over-year rise in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Sunday. The producer-price index dropped 5.4% in July from a year earlier, accelerating its decline from a 4.8% year-over-year drop in June, and exceeding market forecasts. The PPI also declined 0.7% in July from June. In June, it fell 0.4% from the preceding month. The year-over-year fall in the producer-price index is the worst in nearly six years.

Monday, August 10:

  • China reports new local-currency lending, aggregate financing and M2 money supply for July as authorities seek to stabilize the stock market after $4 trillion in losses. In June, aggregate financing beat all 23 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, rising the most since January. Money supply grew 11.8 percent, the most since February.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its Drilling Productivity Report, showing estimates for oil and gas output from the biggest shale formations.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. labor market conditions index (July), U.S. mortgage delinquencies (week of Aug. 10, second quarter), Bank of France business sentiment (July), Portugal trade balance (June).

Tuesday, August 11:

  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, including July production figures from Saudi Arabia and Iran.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlookwith forecasts for oil, natural gas, power prices and supply.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. NFIB small business optimism (July), U.S. nonfarm productivity (second quarter), U.S. wholesale inventories (June), Canada housing starts (July), Mexico industrial production (June), Germany Zew index (Aug.), Russia may report GDP (second quarter), Singapore GDP (second quarter), Turkey current account balance (June), Israel trade balance (July), South Africa manufacturing (June).

Wednesday, August 12:

  • The International Energy Agency issues its monthly Oil Market Report with the latest forecasts for global oil supply and demand.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates are issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. JOLTS job openings (June), U.S. budget statement (July), Brazil retail sales (June), U.K. wages and unemployment rate (June), Portugal CPI (July), euro-area industrial production (June), Russia may report GDP (second quarter), China retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment (July).

Thursday, August 13:

  • The World Gold Council releases its Gold Demand Trends report for the second quarter.
  • Retail sales in the U.S. probably rebounded in July after a broad-based setback a month earlier, helped in part by more motor vehicle purchases, economists project the Commerce Department will report.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. import prices (July), U.S. jobless claims (weekly), Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. business inventories (June), Canada new housing price index (June), Germany CPI (July, final), U.K. RICS house prices (July), Greek GDP (second quarter), Malaysia GDP (second quarter), South Africa mining production (June).

Friday, August 14:

  • Euro-area gross domestic product. The area’s economy is forecast to expand 0.4 percent in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg’s most recent poll.
  • U.S. industrial production probably increased in July, just the second advance this year, economists project the Federal Reserve will report. Output at factories has been restrained by weaker capital spending, a stronger dollar and tepid overseas economies.
  • Consumer sentiment in the U.S. probably improved in August, economists forecast the University of Michigan’s preliminary index will show. Through July, the gauge has held above 90 for eight straight months, the longest such stretch since a 17-month period ended in early 2005 and a sign Americans’ optimism is holding up.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. producer prices (July), Canada manufacturing sales (June), Argentina inflation (July), euro-area CPI (July, final), Portugal GDP (second quarter), France GDP (second quarter), Germany GDP (second quarter), Dutch GDP (second quarter), Italy GDP (second quarter), Czech GDP (second quarter), Hungary GDP (second quarter), Slovakia GDP (second quarter), Poland GDP (second quarter), Hong Kong GDP (second quarter), Taiwan GDP (second quarter), Israel CPI (July).






Categories: Capital Markets

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