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The Week Ahead: Feb 15-19

February 14, 2016

Theme for the week: The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its late-January meeting on Wednesday. The global market volatility so far in 2016 has many economists wondering whether the Fed will keep the current rates in place rather than moving forward with plans for multiple incremental hikes in 2016. Last week, Fed chair Janet Yellen told Congress that she still expects rates to increase gradually throughout the year.

MONDAY, FEB. 15

  • Japan’s economy contracted an annualized 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to estimates for GDP data. This would be the fifth quarter the economy has contracted in the three years since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe returned to power.
  • Economic news for the day: China January trade data (Jan.), China new loans, money supply data (Jan.), South Korea household borrowing data (Jan.), Thailand GDP (fourth quarter), U.K. Rightmove house prices (Feb.), Turkey budget balance (Jan.), Israel CPI(Jan.), Romania CPI (Jan.), Poland budget (Jan.), Ukraine GDP (fourth quarter), Russia industrial production (Jan.).

TUESDAY, FEB. 16

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will deliver a speech on the 2016 economic forecast at the University of Delaware’s Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship. 09:00 EST in Newark, Delaware.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. Empire State manufacturing (Feb.), U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment (Feb.), U.S. Treasury net foreign securities purchases (Dec.), Brazil retail sales (Dec.), Taiwan trade data (Jan.), U.K. inflation (Jan.), German ZEW index (Feb.), Israel annualized GDP (fourth quarter), Czech GDP (fourth quarter).

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 17

  • The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its Jan. 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On Feb. 10, Fed Chair Janet Yellen told Congress the central bank still expects to raise interest rates gradually while making it clear that continued market turmoil could throw policy makers off the course of the multiple increases they have forecast for 2016. 2:00 p.m. EST.
  • New-home construction in the U.S. probably increased in January, indicating steady progress in the housing market. The Commerce Department will issue its housing starts and building permits data at 08:30 in Washington.
  • Industrial production in the U.S. probably climbed in January for the first time in five months, a report from the Federal Reserve is projected to show. 09:15 in Washington.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its oil inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. producer price index (Jan.), Taiwan GDP (fourth quarter), South Korea unemployment (Jan.), South Africa CPI (Jan.), South Africa retail sales (Dec.), Nigeria CPI (Jan.), U.K. unemployment (Dec./Jan.), Poland industrial output (Jan.), Poland retail sales (Jan.), Russian weekly CPI (Feb. 15).

THURSDAY, FEB. 18

  • Leaders of the 28 EU governments begin a two-day summit in Brussels.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report. 11:00 in Washington.
  • Economic news for the day: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (Feb.), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly and Feb. expectations), U.S. leading economic indicators (Jan.), China CPI (Jan.), Australia employment (Jan.), Malaysia GDP (fourth quarter), Turkey survey of expectations(Feb.), Israel CPI forecast (Feb.), Russia wages (Jan.), Russian retail sales (Jan.).

FRIDAY, FEB. 19

  • U.S. consumer prices probably declined in January for a second month as gasoline costs continued to retreat. Excluding fuel and food, the core consumer-price index is forecast to rise at a faster pace. The Labor Department will issue the data at 08:30 in Washington.
  • Economic news for the day: Canada CPI (Jan.), Canada retail sales (Dec.), U.K. retail sales (Jan.), U.K. budget data (Jan.), Turkey consumer confidence index (Feb.).

 

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