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The Week Ahead: August 17 – 21

August 16, 2015

Housing Starts, Fed Minutes, Japan GDP: Week Ahead Aug. 17-21


  • EnerCom’s The Oil & Gas Conference. Officials at exploration and production companies including Continental Resources Inc., Halcon Resources Corp. and Cheniere Energy Inc. will be presenting. The conference is through Aug. 19 in Denver.
  • Japan releases second-quarter gross domestic product data, with economists projecting that the world’s third-largest economy contracted 1.8 percent in the period.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Empire State manufacturing (Aug.), U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment (Aug.), U.S. net foreign securities purchases (June), Thailand GDP (second quarter), Turkey unemployment rate (May), Russia may report industrial production (July), U.K. Rightmove house prices (Aug.), euro area trade balance (June).


  • U.S. housing starts probably climbed in July for a second month, economists forecast the Commerce Department to report. Steady job gains, low mortgage rates and a gradual easing of lending standards are propelling sales.
  • ECONOMY: Chile GDP (second quarter), China property prices (July), CPI Forecast (Aug.), Czech PPI (July), Poland wages (July), Ukraine industrial production (July), Russia may report PPI (July), U.K. inflation and producer-price data (July), U.K. ONS house-price report (June), Portugal PPI (July).


  • Consumer prices in the U.S. probably crept higher in July, leaving the year-over-year advance well short of the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal, economists project the Labor Department to report.
  • The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July 28-29 meeting that may shed light on the debate policy makers are having over the timing of the first increase in the nation’s benchmark interest rate since 2006. Investors are pricing in a 42 percent chance of a rate increase at the Sept. 16-17 meeting. 2:00 p.m. EST in Washington.
  • Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, will probably report that returns were little changed in the second quarter.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), Japan trade (July), South Africa CPI (July), South Africa retail sales (June), Poland industrial output (July), Poland PPI (July), Poland retail sales (July), Russia wages (July), Russia retail sales (July), Russia unemployment rate (July), ECB current account (June).


  • Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably cooled in July after reaching an eight-year high a month earlier, economists project a National Association of Realtors report will show. The housing market has picked up in recent months as the labor market strengthens and borrowing costs stay near historical lows.
  • Greece deadline. The country must make a 3.2 billion-euro ($3.6 billion) payment to the European Central Bank by Aug. 20. Greece’s creditors are seeking to reach an agreement on an aid program in time for the country to make the payment.
  • The American Petroleum Institute releases its monthly report on U.S. oil inventories and demand.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly and August expectations), U.S. leading economic indicators (July), U.S. Philadelphia manufacturing index (August), Brazil unemployment rate (July), Mexico GDP (second quarter), Norway GDP (second quarter), Russian central bank reserves (Aug. 14), Hungary economic sentiment (Aug.), Netherlands consumer confidence (Aug.), Netherlands unemployment (July), U.K. retail sales (July), U.K. CBI trends survey (Aug.).


  • Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly report on futures and options positions for oil.
  • ECONOMY: Brazil IPCA-15 inflation index (Aug.), Mexico retail sales (June), Estonia PPI (July), Slovenia PPI (July), Latvia PPI (July), German GfK consumer confidence (Sept.), U.K. public finances (July), euro area consumer confidence (Aug.).



The week ahead August 8-14

August 9, 2015

U.S. Retail Sales, Euro-Area GDP, China


Chinese data over the weekend:

  • Chinese exports tumbled 8.3 percent in July, their biggest drop in four months and far worse than expected, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will be forced to roll out more stimulus to support the world’s second-largest economy.
  • Imports also fell heavily from a year earlier, in line with market forecasts but suggesting domestic demand might be too feeble to offset the weaker global demand for China’s exports.
  • Economists had forecast exports to fall just 1 percent, after a 2.8 percent uptick in June, but the data on Saturday showed depressed demand from Europe and the first drop in exports to the United States, China’s biggest market, since March.
  • Exports to the European Union fell 12.3 percent in July while those to the United States dropped 1.3 percent. Demand from Japan, another big trading partner, slid 13 percent.
  • Imports fell 8.1 percent, according to the data from the General Administration of Customs. That compared with forecasts for an 8 percent drop, after a 6.1 percent decline in June, though these falls also reflected weaker commodity prices. China recorded a trade surplus of $43.03 billion for the month, below forecasts of $53.25 billion.
  • “A recovery in external demand remains far off and economic growth will continue to rely on domestic demand, which implies policies should continue to be relaxed in the second half,” wrote Qu Hongbin, China economist at global bank HSBC.
  • China’s consumer inflation ticked up slightly in July but remained tame enough to give policy makers plenty of room to use more aggressive measures to boost a sluggish economy.
  • China’s consumer-price index rose 1.6% in July from a year earlier, picking up pace from the 1.4% year-over-year rise in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Sunday. The producer-price index dropped 5.4% in July from a year earlier, accelerating its decline from a 4.8% year-over-year drop in June, and exceeding market forecasts. The PPI also declined 0.7% in July from June. In June, it fell 0.4% from the preceding month. The year-over-year fall in the producer-price index is the worst in nearly six years.

Monday, August 10:

  • China reports new local-currency lending, aggregate financing and M2 money supply for July as authorities seek to stabilize the stock market after $4 trillion in losses. In June, aggregate financing beat all 23 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, rising the most since January. Money supply grew 11.8 percent, the most since February.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its Drilling Productivity Report, showing estimates for oil and gas output from the biggest shale formations.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. labor market conditions index (July), U.S. mortgage delinquencies (week of Aug. 10, second quarter), Bank of France business sentiment (July), Portugal trade balance (June).

Tuesday, August 11:

  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, including July production figures from Saudi Arabia and Iran.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlookwith forecasts for oil, natural gas, power prices and supply.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. NFIB small business optimism (July), U.S. nonfarm productivity (second quarter), U.S. wholesale inventories (June), Canada housing starts (July), Mexico industrial production (June), Germany Zew index (Aug.), Russia may report GDP (second quarter), Singapore GDP (second quarter), Turkey current account balance (June), Israel trade balance (July), South Africa manufacturing (June).

Wednesday, August 12:

  • The International Energy Agency issues its monthly Oil Market Report with the latest forecasts for global oil supply and demand.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates are issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. JOLTS job openings (June), U.S. budget statement (July), Brazil retail sales (June), U.K. wages and unemployment rate (June), Portugal CPI (July), euro-area industrial production (June), Russia may report GDP (second quarter), China retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment (July).

Thursday, August 13:

  • The World Gold Council releases its Gold Demand Trends report for the second quarter.
  • Retail sales in the U.S. probably rebounded in July after a broad-based setback a month earlier, helped in part by more motor vehicle purchases, economists project the Commerce Department will report.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. import prices (July), U.S. jobless claims (weekly), Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. business inventories (June), Canada new housing price index (June), Germany CPI (July, final), U.K. RICS house prices (July), Greek GDP (second quarter), Malaysia GDP (second quarter), South Africa mining production (June).

Friday, August 14:

  • Euro-area gross domestic product. The area’s economy is forecast to expand 0.4 percent in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg’s most recent poll.
  • U.S. industrial production probably increased in July, just the second advance this year, economists project the Federal Reserve will report. Output at factories has been restrained by weaker capital spending, a stronger dollar and tepid overseas economies.
  • Consumer sentiment in the U.S. probably improved in August, economists forecast the University of Michigan’s preliminary index will show. Through July, the gauge has held above 90 for eight straight months, the longest such stretch since a 17-month period ended in early 2005 and a sign Americans’ optimism is holding up.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. producer prices (July), Canada manufacturing sales (June), Argentina inflation (July), euro-area CPI (July, final), Portugal GDP (second quarter), France GDP (second quarter), Germany GDP (second quarter), Dutch GDP (second quarter), Italy GDP (second quarter), Czech GDP (second quarter), Hungary GDP (second quarter), Slovakia GDP (second quarter), Poland GDP (second quarter), Hong Kong GDP (second quarter), Taiwan GDP (second quarter), Israel CPI (July).





The week ahead: July 13-18

July 12, 2015

Monday, July 13:

  • Chinese exports probably expanded in June following three months of declines. The nation’s trade surplus may have shrunk and imports likely fell.
  • The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is expected to include the organization’s first forecasts for 2016.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its monthly Drilling Productivity Report, outlining the latest outlook for shale.
  • Puerto Rico officials are scheduled to meet with creditors in New York to discuss a restructuring plan for the junk-rated commonwealth as it falls further into a fiscal crisis.
  • Trade talks. The U.S. and European Union hold their 10th round of negotiations on the planned Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP, in an effort to have most of a draft deal ready by year-end.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. budget statement (June), Serbia CPI (June).

Tuesday, July 14:

  • Sales at U.S. retailers probably climbed in June for a fourth straight month, boosted by job gains and stable prices at the gas pump, economists forecast the Commerce Department will report
  • ECONOMY: U.S. import price index (June), NFIB U.S. small business optimism (June), U.S. business inventories (May), Brazil retail sales (May), Teranet Canada home prices (June), Singapore GDP (second quarter), U.K. inflation (June), German ZEW index (July), euro-area industrial production (May), Bulgaria CPI (June).
  • EARNINGS: Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Fastenal Co., Wells Fargo & Co., CSX Corp., Yum! Brands Inc., SEB AB.

Wednesday, July 15:

  • The Bank of Japan will announce monetary policy after a two-day meeting in Tokyo. The central bank will also update growth and inflation forecasts, with its meeting typically ending at about midday and followed by a press conference with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.
  • China may say second-quarter economic growth slid to 6.8 percent, the slowest since 2009, as a stock-market plunge and property slump weighed on the world’s second-largest economy. The country will also announce industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales data for June.
  • The European Commission will publish a package of documents on climate and energy policies, including a draft law seeking to bring in stricter carbon targets for 2030 and a policy paper on empowering consumers in the energy market.
  • Industrial production in the U.S. probably climbed in June, reflecting a weather-driven increase in utility output, economists project the Federal Reserve will report. Production at factories probably barely improved, the data may also show.
  • The Bank of Canada may leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Eleven of the 26 economists polled as of July 9 see the central bank cutting the rate by a quarter point to 0.5 percent.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. producer prices (June), U.S. Empire State manufacturing (July), U.S. Fed’s Beige Book, Argentina inflation (June), Canada existing home sales (June), South Korea unemployment (June), U.K. unemployment (May/June), South Africa retail sales (May), Ghana CPI (June), Israel CPI (June), Turkey unemployment (April), Croatia CPI (June), Poland CPI (June), Russia may report industrial production (June).
  • EARNINGS: U.S. Bancorp, BlackRock Inc., Bank of America Corp., Kinder Morgan Inc., Netflix Inc., Intel Corp., PNC Financial Services Group Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc., Storebrand ASA.

Thursday, July 16:

  • European Central Bank policy decision. The ECB’s Governing Council meets for a scheduled monetary-policy meeting.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (July), U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment (July), Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities (May), New Zealand CPI (second quarter), euro-area inflation (June), Nigeria CPI (June), Israel GDP (first quarter), Russia may report industrial production (June), Slovakia CPI (June), Slovenia unemployment (May), Russian gold and foreign currency reserves (July 10).
  • EARNINGS: Blackstone Group LP, BB&T Corp., PPG Industries Inc., Charles Schwab Corp., UnitedHealth Group Inc., EBay Inc., Sherwin-Williams Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., Mattel Inc., Schlumberger Ltd., Google Inc., Philip Morris International Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Swedbank AB, Nordea Bank AB.

Friday, July 17:

  • U.S. consumer prices probably rose in June as the cost of food and fuel increased, economists forecast a Labor Department report will show. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is hovering close to the Federal Reserve’s goal.
  • U.S. housing starts probably climbed in June after falling a month earlier, indicating slow progress in the industry, economists project the Commerce Department will report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment (July preliminary), Canada CPI (June), ECB survey of professional forecasters, Poland industrial output (June), Poland retail sales (June), Russia retail sales (June), Russia unemployment rate (June), Ukraine industrial production (June).
  • EARNINGS: Honeywell International Inc., SunTrust Banks Inc., Comerica Inc., General Electric Co., Kansas City Southern, Volvo AB, Electrolux AB, Kone Oyj.

Saturday, July 18:

  • China’s statistics bureau will announce June property prices. Home prices fell in fewer cities for a third month in May as buyer confidence returned after property curbs were eased and interest rates fell.


Greek Votes “No” (Voters reject Bailout Offer); expect global equities sell off on Monday

July 5, 2015

  • Figures published by the interior ministry showed 61% of those whose ballots had been counted voting “No”, against 39% voting “Yes”, according to BBC.
  • European stock and bond markets are set to take a sharp hit on Monday after Greece voted ‘No’ to harsh bailout conditions, and bankers said the European Central Bank’s response was now key to the extent of contagion, according to Reuters.
  • “The ECB has the capacity to limit the spread of contagion. But we might still see a fall of 3 percent on European markets on Monday,” said Antonin Jullier, head of equity trading strategy at Citi.(Goldman Sachs has predicted that there could be an initial 10% wiped off the European shares)

Whats next?

  • European Council President Donald Tusk called a euro zone summit for Tuesday to discuss the Greek debt crisis after Greeks voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to reject the terms of a bailout

    European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will hold a conference call with Tusk, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on the Greek situation on Monday morning, the Commission said.

    When is the next deadline?

  • Greece missed a payment to the International Monetary Fund last week and the clock will tick down to 20 July when Greece must repay €3.5bn to the ECB – the final deadline, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If they missed that, “It would then be very difficult to repair the relationship between Athens and the Europeans, at least under the current political configuration in Greece, according to The Guardian.



The Week Ahead July 6th-10th

July 3, 2015

**The Greek referendum on Sunday will determine the move on equities next week. A “YES” vote will keep headline risk high as new negotiations between Athens and its creditors take place and a new government begins to shape, with stocks hovering near current levels in increased volatility. A “NO” vote could be a repeat of last Monday’s selloff as traders push the risk-off button and get out of the market’s way while the future of Greece in the euro zone becomes more clear.

Monday July 6:

  • Service industries in the U.S. probably expanded in June at a faster pace than the previous month, signaling the economy is improving after a weak start to the year, according to the median economist forecast of the Institute for Supply Management’s index.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. Markit services index (June final), U.S. labor market conditions index (June), Canada Ivey PMI (June), Canada business sales optimism (2Q), German factory orders (May), Swiss CPI (June), Ukraine CPI (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)

Tuesday July 7:

  • Greek banks are scheduled to reopen.
  • The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in May as a stronger economy boosted demand for imports, economists project the Commerce Department to report. 08:30 in Washington.
  • Iran deadline. Talks in Vienna to reach a final accord on limiting the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program were extended to today from an initial self-imposed cutoff date of June 30.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlook with forecasts for oil, natural gas, power prices and supply.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. job openings/labor turnover (May), U.S. consumer credit (May), Canada trade balance (May), Taiwan inflation (June), Taiwan exports/imports (June), German industrial production (May), U.K. industrial production (May), Swiss unemployment (June), Swiss National Bank foreign-currency reserves (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)

Wednesday July 8:

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • (2 p.m. ET) FOMC minutes from June 16-17 meeting.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, speaks at the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), Brazil IPCA inflation index (June), Japan current account (May), Korean bank lending to households (June), Korean money supply (May), Turkey industrial production (May), Hungary CPI (June).
  • ALCOA starts off Q315 earnings season.

Thursday July 9:

  • Chinese consumer inflation may have accelerated in June, after slowing in May, signaling the start of an economic recovery. Factory-gate price deflation may have stabilized.
  • The International Monetary Fund will release revisions to its World Economic Outlook report.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Canada housing starts (June), Mexico inflation (June), Australia jobless rate (June), German exports (May), U.K. RICS house prices (June), British Chambers of Commerce publishes 2Q economic forecasts, Greek CPI (June), Greek unemployment (April), South Africa manufacturing growth (May), Czech CPI (June), Russia gold and foreign currency reserves (July 3).

Friday July 10:

  • Chinese new lending may have increased in June for a second month, suggesting continued monetary easing is reaching the larger economy.
  • The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil market report with an outlook on global crude demand, supply and stockpiles. The report has projections through the end of 2016.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. wholesale inventories (May), Canada unemployment (June), Mexico industrial production (May), U.K. trade balance (May), U.K. construction output (May), French industrial production (May), Italian industrial production (May), Greek industrial production (May), Turkey current account balance (May), Portugal consumer price index (June).



The Week Ahead June 22-26

June 21, 2015

Monday, June 22:

  • Euro-area leaders are scheduled to hold an emergency summit in Brussels to discuss Greece after finance ministers failed to reach an agreement on terms for unlocking aid before the country’s current bailout program expires on June 30.
  • Iran nuclear negotiations. Talks enter their final phase as diplomats from six world powers and Iran meet in Vienna to seek a nuclear agreement by a June 30 deadline.
  • Purchases of previously owned U.S. homes probably rose in May, helped by employment gains and cheap borrowing costs, after unexpectedly declining a month earlier.

Tuesday, June 23:

  • Orders for U.S. durable goods probably fell in May for a second month as demand for commercial aircraft cooled, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey.
  • Sales of U.S. new homes probably declined in May after an April increase, highlighting the uneven recovery in housing, economists forecast the Commerce Department will report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. FHFA house price index (April), Markit U.S. manufacturing index (June preliminary), Richmond Fed manufacturing (June), euro-area PMIs (June), Italy retail sales (April), South Africa current-account balance (first quarter), South Africa leading indicator (April).

Wednesday, June 24:

  • NATO talks. North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense ministers meet in Brussels for two days to discuss the reinforcement of eastern Europe in response to Russian threats.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. GDP (1Q, third estimate), Mexico bi-weekly CPI, Taiwan industrial production (May), German IFO business confidence (June), Turkey capacity utilization (June), Czech confidence (June), Poland unemployment (May).

Thursday, June 25:

  • Personal spending in May probably climbed in May, bolstered by job and income gains, economists estimate the Commerce Department’s report will show.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report.
  • ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Markit U.S. services index (June, preliminary), Kansas City Fed manufacturing (June), Brazil unemployment rate (May), Taiwan money supply (May), Hong Kong trade data (May), Austria industrial production (April), South Africa PPI (May).
  • Misc: Basketball. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers have the first three picks in the National Basketball Association draft, followed by the New York Knicks at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

Friday, June 26:

  •  An unmanned Falcon 9 rocket from SpaceX is scheduled to launch at 11:09 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, in the company’s seventh resupply mission for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to the International Space Station.
  • ECONOMY: Michigan consumer sentiment (June final), Argentina GDP (first quarter), Japan consumer price data (May), Japan unemployment (May), France consumer confidence (June), Hungary unemployment rate (May).



The week ahead June 15-19

June 14, 2015


  • Industrial production in the U.S. probably rose in May for the first time in six months, economists project the Federal Reserve will report. Factories have been beset by a strong dollar, limited capital spending and weak global markets. 09:15 in Washington.
  • Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter of oil, opens its stock market to direct foreign investment.
  • The International Energy Agency publishes its World Energy Outlook 2015 Special Report on Energy and Climate Change. The report will analyze national climate pledges in the context of the recent decline in fossil-fuel prices. Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven will speak at the event. 10:00 in London (05:00 EDT).

Economic news being released:

Empire State manufacturing (June), NAHB homebuilder confidence (June), Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities (April), Canada manufacturing sales (April), Canada existing home sales (May), Argentina national urban CPI (May), Turkey unemployment (March), Israel CPI (May), U.K. Rightmove house prices (June), Poland CPI (May), Russia GDP (first quarter).


  • FOMC meets. The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets in Washington for a two-day gathering to review the state of the U.S. economy and debate the timing of its first interest-rate increase since 2006. Investors see almost no chance of a rate increase at this month’s meeting and a 53 percent chance of a rise at the September meeting, according to bets in interest-rate futures markets.
  • New housing starts in the U.S. probably cooled in May after surging a month earlier to the highest level in seven years, economists forecast the Commerce Department to report. An improving labor market and mortgage rates close to multi-year lows are helping revive construction. 08:30 in Washington.

Economic news being released:

Brazil retail sales (April), Israel GDP (first quarter), U.K. inflation (May), German ZEW survey (June), Russia may report industrial production (May).


  • FOMC rate decision. The Federal Open Market Committee releases its latest policy statement and revised forecasts for U.S. economic growth, the labor market and inflation at 14:00 in Washington. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holds a press conference starting at 14:30.
  • Bank of England minutes. The BOE releases the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s June meeting, when it left its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.
  • Fitbit Inc. IPO pricing. The San Francisco-based maker of wearable devices is expected to price its initial public offering, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At the high end of the $14-to-$16 a share offering range, Fitbit would be valued at about $3.3 billion.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

Economic news being released:

Canada wholesale sales (April), U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), New Zealand current account (first quarter), Japan trade balance (May), U.K. unemployment (April), euro-area inflation (May), South Africa CPI (May), South Africa retail sales (April), Russia may report industrial production (May).


  • Consumer prices probably climbed in May by the most in more than two years as Americans paid more for gasoline, indicating inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s goal. The Labor Department will issue the figures at 08:30 in Washington.
  • China will release residential property prices for May. Home prices dropped in fewer cities in April as demand received a boost from three interest-rate cuts since November and the removal of property curbs.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

Economic news being released:

U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. current account balance (first quarter), Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (June), U.S. leading economic indicators (May), New Zealand GDP (first quarter), Hong Kong unemployment (May), U.K. retail sales (May), Nigeria CPI (May), Polish industrial output (May), Poland retail sales (May), Russia retail sales (May), Ukraine industrial production (May).

Golf. The 115th U.S. Open, the second major championship of the year, begins at Chambers Bay Golf Course in University Place, Washington. Tee times and pairings to be determined. Through 06/21.


  • The Bank of Japan ends a two-day meeting to set monetary policy after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda last week said there was no reason for the yen to weaken further, raising a potential hurdle to additional easing as the bank seeks to boost stalling inflation.
  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its semi-annual update on world coffee supply and demand. The report will include the agency’s first official estimates for the 2015-2016 season.

Economic news being released:

Canada CPI (May), Canada retail sales (April), Brazil IPCA-15 inflation (June), S. Korea purchasing price index (May), Turkey monthly survey of expectations, U.K. public finances (May), Ukraine GDP (first quarter), Georgia GDP (first quarter).



U.S. stocks finished higher on positive Retail Sales data

June 11, 2015

Wall Street climbs after retail sales data

  • U.S. stocks climbed on Thursday as retail sales data lifted the outlook for consumer spending and as healthcare shares gained.
  • U.S. retail sales increased 1.2 percent in May, more than expected, as households boosted purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods even as they paid a bit more for gasoline, according to Reuters.
  • “You had good retail sales today and slightly above expectations. Remember how weak retail sales were in the winter, so you would expect a bounceback here,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.
  • However, the market stayed cautious over Greece. The International Monetary Fund said its delegation had halted negotiations in Brussels and flown home because of differences with Athens.



Twitter’s CEO is stepping down due to slower growth

June 11, 2015

  • Twitter Inc (TWTR.N) Chief Executive Officer Dick Costolo abruptly announced he was stepping down on Thursday amid increasing scrutiny of the company’s slow user growth and inability to attract advertisers at the same rate as its competitors.
  • The company’s shares jumped 7.7 percent to $38.60 following the news before paring gains to trade at $37.54.
  • Twitter has long struggled to gain users at the rate of other social media companies, such as Facebook Inc (FB.O) Instagram and Snapchat, according to The Wall Street Journal.
  • “Twitter has never been great at giving its users reasons to come back. While other social sites have introduced new features and functionality the past few years, Twitter has mostly stood still. The result has been excruciatingly slow user growth”, Forrester’s Elliott said.
  • Chris Sacca, one of Twitter’s earliest investors, said that Twitter would be an “instant fit” for Google (GOOGL.O) if it were to acquire the microblogging service.



World Bank cuts 2015 global growth forecast (again)

June 10, 2015

World Bank Cuts 2015 Global Growth Forecast to 2.8%


  • The World Bank downgraded its outlook for global economic growth amid a broad-based slowdown in emerging markets and softer output in the U.S, The Wall Street Journal reported.
  • The development institution said that it now expects the world economy to grow by 2.8%, 0.2 percentage point slower than it estimated in January.
  • Sharp contractions in Brazil and Russia, alongside weaker growth in Turkey, Indonesia and scores of other developing economies are offsetting healthier growth in Europe and Japan, the bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report.
  • The estimate for U.S. growth was lowered to 2.7% from 3.2%.
  • Emerging markets are expected to face headwinds as borrowing costs are expected to rise as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. That prospect has also sparked a strong dollar rally, tightening the squeeze on developing-country governments and corporations that borrowed dollars but whose income is denominated in local currency.